The ongoing debt ceiling negotiations and lack of a deal between the White House and the GOP continues to dominate the overall equity markets and creates ripples with each headline that hits the tape. Also, a big factor that has everyone’s attention is AI and the top 10 technology names that have had an upward surge in their stock prices. …
Risk Remains in Rangebound Market
May 15, 2023 in Wall Street WhispersThe equity markets remain rangebound since 5/22, with varying performance across different indexes — some showing slight gains, others remaining flat or marginally down. However, it is crucial to recognize that the S&P 500 does not encompass the entire breadth of the equity markets. Beneath the surface of the headline benchmark index and the dominating mega-cap tech names, the average …
Maintaining Barbell — Defense & Secular Growth, Cyclicals Continue to Remain at Relative Risk
May 3, 2023 in Sector UpdateSUMMARY CONCLUSIONS Bottom line: The combination of the inflation fight dragging on, the labor market remaining resilient, no Fed easing, the economy continuing to move towards some type of landing, and the ongoing lowering of forward corporate profit expectations will likely limit overall equity market upside potential, and arguably raises the odds for a challenging period going forward. Today’s much …
Tactical Tools Flip to Unfavorable While Remaining Medium-Term Bearish
April 26, 2023 in Wall Street WhispersAs my calendar begins to refill and my activity levels start returning to normal after my couple weeks of dealing with some things, I find it interesting to be both reading/hearing from other forecasters/analysts as well as interacting with clients. From other forecasters/analysts, I am hearing talk about how good earnings have been for the quarter, that the equity markets …
Sector Positioning — Barbell — Defense & Secular Growth, Cyclicals Remain at Relative Risk
April 10, 2023 in Sector UpdateEXECUTIVE SUMMARY I did a deep dive into my sector (GICS L-1) work last week. Although there remains an elevated level of headline macro news and the ongoing tug of war regarding the future path of Fed policy, my key indicators have remained quite stable and are not suggesting any major sector changes at this time. With that being said, …
Danger Remains Elevated, Easing Still Unlikely
March 30, 2023 in Wall Street WhispersThe ongoing tug-of-war that I have been discussing since the beginning of the year seems to have tilted towards “all is good.” Smooth sailing ahead. The banking crisis has been averted. The Fed will have to end its hiking cycle and return to accommodation. The economy and corporate profits will withstand any challenges and remain resilient while inflation keeps falling …
Sector Update: Barbell — Defense & Secular Growth, Cyclicals Remain at Relative Risk
March 20, 2023 in Sector UpdateExecutive Summary I did a deep dive into my sector (GICS L-1) work last week. After making several small changes last month, including an upgrade of Technology, my work has not suggested any changes. Interestingly, despite the rumblings in the market caused by the recent banking chaos and the market’s dramatically changing Fed expectations, the key 8-panel indicators and metrics …
The Ongoing Tug of War, Potential Danger Ahead
March 8, 2023 in Wall Street WhispersThe first week of March has been filled with the same “tug of war” action that typified the months of January and February, which I began discussing in my first Whispers of 2023. The two-day short squeeze rally following non-voting Atlanta Fed President Bostic’s comments last Thursday has reversed quite violently this week on Chair Powell’s two-day testimony in front …
What Our Clients Are Talking About Behind The Scenes
December 5, 2022 in Wall Street WhispersThe tug of war between the Bulls/Doves and Bears/Hawks continues as we head into the home stretch of 2022. There has not been a lack of data and headline news for both sides to try and make their case as the S&P 500’s rally that began in October is still hovering near 4000. As has been the case since the …
What Our Clients Are Talking About Behind The Scenes
in Wall Street WhispersEquities have rallied and have continued to hold at higher levels following the lower-than-expected CPI report from last week and the follow up downside surprise from PPI that came out earlier this week. A lot of more tactical and mechanical related funds were caught offsides, and a short covering surge has occurred. Now that a bounce attempt has once again …