JOLTs instance “hard” converging towards improving “soft” data. At this pace, Fed gets 1.0 openings/worker ratio by Oct/Nov. Nasdaq 100 became “100% bid”. Since 1996, 6 of 6 times, saw further gains.

October 5, 2022 in FLASH

We publish on a 3-day a week schedule: – Sun eve/ Mon am– SKIP MON– Tue eve / Wed am– SKIP WED – Thu eve /  Fri am After a tumultuous decline in the final weeks of September, market technicals were awful and sentiment and positioning bearish. But in each of the past two days, equities rallied strongly, adding >5% …

HY not making new wides, despite S&P 500 making new lows = divergence. HWOL data suggests JOLTS job opening ratio could fall to 1.85 for August (reported 10/4)

September 28, 2022 in FLASH

We publish on a 3-day a week schedule: – Sun eve/ Mon am– SKIP MON– Tue eve / Wed am– SKIP WED – Thu eve /  Fri am Our latest “Fundstrat inflation dashboard” is updated. This week is even uglier than last week. Financial markets have become even more wary this week, with markets concerned about a plethora of factors …

Conf Board HWOL shows job openings fall in August, leads JOLTS by 3 weeks. Cum. inflation since 2020 is 7% above trend, compared to +75% when Volcker took helm = no need to go full “Volck-an”

September 28, 2022 in FLASH

We publish on a 3-day a week schedule: – Sun eve/ Mon am– SKIP MON– Tue eve / Wed am– SKIP WED – Thu eve /  Fri am Entire rise in June Fed funds has been reversed post Sept FOMC surge Stocks have declined consecutively for the past 6 trading days, reflecting financial markets adjusting to a “higher for longer” …

While investors know Fed wants inflation “deader than dead”, metric is not entirely clear. While not singular, Volcker finally ended “war” when 3M annualized CPI fell to 2.5%

September 1, 2022 in FLASH

We publish on a 3-day a week schedule: – Sun eve/ Mon am– SKIP MON– Tue eve / Wed am– SKIP WED – Thu eve /  Fri am Our latest “Fundstrat inflation dashboard” is updated. ___________________________________ the latest indeed.com labs report show the Sept job market is really softening (slide 22) as Goldman Sachs Economist note, the July JOLTS (latest) …

Sept FOMC… markets expect +75bp and “hawkish” surprise less likely given last 4 weeks. Market’s reaction to August CPI one of 10 worst since 1970.

September 1, 2022 in FLASH

We publish on a 3-day a week schedule: – Sun eve/ Mon am– SKIP MON– Tue eve / Wed am– SKIP WED – Thu eve /  Fri am The Fed’s September FOMC meets this week and a rate decision will be made on 9/21. Last week, equities suffered the largest weekly loss in 2H2022 so far, falling 4.8% (4th worst …

Nasdaq went “no bid” on 9/13 with zero stocks advancing. 13 of 13 times, Nasdaq 100 higher median 12M gain 21%. When already >25% drawdown, median gain +64%

September 1, 2022 in FLASH

We publish on a 3-day a week schedule: – Sun eve/ Mon am– SKIP MON– Tue eve / Wed am– SKIP WED – Thu eve /  Fri am Our latest “Fundstrat inflation dashboard” is updated. ___________________________________ We added CPI data for the 9 regions report (slide 5-8) Fed Funds YE up since August CPI report to 4.23% (vs 4.0% pre-CPI) …