What Does The Fed’s November Hike Mean For Markets?

in Fed Watch, Market Intelligence

“As investors, we also always have to be aware of our innate and very human tendency to be fighting the last war. We forget that Mr. Market is an ingenious sadist, and that he delights in torturing us in different ways.” – Barton Biggs The Federal Reserve held their highly anticipated November FOMC meeting on Wednesday. As expected, the world’s …

What Does September’s Rate Hike and Dot Plot Mean For Markets?

in Fed Watch

The FOMC met yesterday to announce their latest rate hike. As the market for Fed Funds Futures implied leading up to the meeting, the committee decided on a 75-bps hike. We wanted to provide a special update on where things stand with the Fed and markets after their third-to-last meeting of 2022. The next rate decision will be on November …

Special Edition: Everything You Need to Know About Jackson Hole

in Fed Watch

The Jackson Hole Symposium has become one of the pre-eminent events for central bankers, policymakers, and economists. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosts the event every year. Each year has a different theme. This year’s theme was “Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy. The agenda for the event can be found here. The event was first held …

Fed Minutes: Despite Encouraging July CPI, Inflation Remains Far Too High

in Fed Watch

It’s not time for a victory lap just yet, even after markets have rallied substantially since their June lows, and an encouraging July CPI print pushed them higher. This week, the Fed released the minutes from its most recent policy meeting in late July. Fed officials, according to the minutes, think inflation remains too high, and are committed to raising …

All Eyes on FOMC Meeting Next Week Amid Hot Inflation

in Fed Watch

Federal Reserve officials have indicated they are gravitating toward another 0.75-percentage-point rate rise at their July 26-27 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, even as they have faced questions about their willingness to do more than that to bring down high inflation. Central bankers have signaled they will do whatever it takes to lower inflation that is now running above 9%. …

June CPI Report Comes In Hot, Fed Fund Futures Retreat After Initial Shock

in Fed Watch

The June CPI print came in at 9.1% on Wednesday on expectations of 8.8%. This was higher than expectations and the report did not give Fed officials any reprieve from persistently high price pressures. Shelter was problematic and so was gasoline. Hotels benefitting from revenge spending contributed as well. The initial market reaction was likely somewhat extreme in Fed Funds …

FOMC minutes confirm Fed’s priority to fight inflation; US job growth remains solid

in Fed Watch

The FOMC minutes released this week showed further evidence that the Feds are centered on containing inflation. Investors cheered this week, though fears of a recession linger. FOMC policymakers judged that an increase of 50 or 75 basis points “would likely be appropriate at the next meeting” given the current economic outlook. They also “recognized the possibility that an even …