In front of crucial Nov PPI, CPI and FOMC, why is US equity market worse than Europe and Asia? Put-call surged 12/7-12/8, arguing favorable risk/reward into these reports.

December 8, 2022 in FLASH, Macro Strategy

We publish on a 3-day a week schedule: – Sun eve / MON am– SKIP MON– Tue eve/Wed am– SKIP WED– Thu eve / Fri am Our latest “Inflation Dashboard” has been updated and is attached Why is the US essentially the worst stock market in the world? With the weakest bounce? Arguably, the US has best weathered the trifecta …

Inflation risks still greater to the downside. The low response rate of JOLTS (31% down from 44% in 2021) argues JOLTS might be overstating labor market strength. Thus, risk/reward still favorable into YE.

in FLASH, Macro Strategy

We publish on a 3-day a week schedule: – Sun eve / MON am– SKIP MON– Tue eve/Wed am– SKIP WED– Thu eve / Fri am We are continuing our visit with clients in Japan. The overall mood of investors remains cautious for understandable reasons. They don’t want to fight the Fed and they remain concerned that stocks have not …

Flat equities after “hot” Nov jobs report shows stocks proving more resilient than consensus expects… why is S&P 500 drawdown worse than Germany, China or Japan? Still see rally into YE towards 4,400-4,500

in FLASH, Macro Strategy

We publish on a 3-day a week schedule: – Sun eve / MON am– SKIP MON– Tue eve/Wed am– SKIP WED– Thu eve / Fri am Equities are proving more resilient than consensus expects… The strong November jobs report (on 12/2) of +263k vs 200k consensus (plus strong wage growth) gave markets every excuse to sell off sharply: Strong jobs …

The inflation crisis of 2022 made investors focus solely on danger, not opportunity. Powell signaling time to look at latter. YE rally to be fueled by Tech + Small-caps + High P/E + Heavily Shorted

in FLASH, Macro Strategy

We publish on a 3-day a week schedule: – Sun eve / MON am– SKIP MON– Tue eve/Wed am– SKIP WED– Thu eve / Fri am Our latest “Inflation Dashboard” has been updated and is attached In 2022, the inflation “crisis” has made investors solely focus on “danger” not “opportunity” I am on my way to Tokyo/Osaka for a few …

Investors more “bearish” in front of Wed Fed Chair Powell at Brookings Institution, but other key macro offsets this…

November 29, 2022 in FLASH, Macro Strategy

We publish on a 3-day a week schedule: – Sun eve / MON am– SKIP MON– Tue eve/Wed am– SKIP WED– Thu eve / Fri am Investors getting more “bearish” in front of Wed Fed Chair Powell at Brookings Institution In the first two trading days of this week, equities have been soft. Ostensibly, there are 3 near-term factors that …

88% of Americans eat turkey tomo… less “consensus” than % who see recession in 2023. Markets are not “fighting the Fed” if inflation is set to cool.

November 22, 2022 in FLASH, Macro Strategy

We publish on a 3-day a week schedule: – Sun eve / MON am– SKIP MON– Tue eve/Wed am– SKIP WED– SKIP Thu eve / Fri am <– THANKSGIVING EATING TURKEY IS CONSENSUS: Belief in a “hard landing” as ubiquitous The conviction that the US is hurtling towards/or already in a recession is ubiquitous. Many can cite a litany of …

Takeaways from Tel Aviv… investors wait for clearer signs of falling inflation but that is also consensus. 2023 EPS probably above consensus if USD softens in 2023.

in FLASH, Macro Strategy

We publish on a 3-day a week schedule: – Sun eve / MON am– SKIP MON– Tue eve/Wed am– SKIP WED – Thu eve /  Fri am Our latest “Inflation Dashboard” has been updated and is attached I just returned from a multiday visit with institutional investors in Tel Aviv. Over the course of two days, we sat down with …