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Below you'll find a list of all posts that have been categorized as “Portfolio Strategy”
After equity market strength through Thursday, Friday saw some weakness as earnings and growth fears once again resurfaced. The earnings season has thus far been unimpressive to weak, and the guidance has clearly been more negative than not. I have been discussing for several months that an estimate revision cutting cycle was on the way, and it is now in …
Despite the equity market rally that has followed the sharply lower opening on Thursday to end the week, the S&P 500 was still down since last Friday’s close. The absolute weakness was broad-based as ten out of the eleven Sectors (GICS L-1) closed in the red with only Staples posting a 0.11% gain. The headline macro data and news headlines …
Well, we are finally done with 1H22. Phew. I could comment about how bad it was, but I will spare you from reading it again here. Unfortunately, just because the calendar flipped to a new month, new quarter, and to 2H22 the same headwinds are likely to present challenges for more time. How much longer will this take? How much …
FLASH COMMENTS: This week, I did my deep dive into my single stock quantitative selection model that I call ERM and was looking quite closely at the earnings revisions of nearly 4000 U.S. companies. So, I had fewer client calls then normal and spent a bit less time looking at the day-to-day wiggles in the market. The market continues to …
Ah, I’d love to wear a rainbow every dayAnd tell the world that everything’s okayBut I’ll try to carry off a little darkness on my back‘Til things are brighter, I’m the Man In Black -Johnny Cash The earnings revision cutting cycle that I have been discussing has not only begun but it also continues to grind ahead. Along with this, …
Beware of this rally. My work suggests that oversold tactical bounces like we experienced this week should be faded, not bought. I don’t think we are in “hide under your desk” markets either. However, based on research it is tough for me to envision a scenario where equities have a sustained upward move during a downward revision cycle, which my …
I am continuing to urge caution and vigilance for equity investors. My research is strongly suggesting that there still is downside ahead, and evidence is slowly building for having to introduce a new downside target below my longstanding key zone of 3,500-3,600. UGH, don’t shoot the messenger as it’s the indicators in my analytical toolbox. I am yearning to get …
FLASH COMMENTS: Today’s Fed meeting, 75bps increase in the fund rate, and the post-meeting press conference by Chair Powell does NOT change my outlook at all. My research suggests that we are in the early stages of a negative earnings revisions cycle that is not priced into equity markets and thus my views are not impacted by today’s Fed news. My work …
The market was hit with two body blows today, the first was the hotter than expected CPI Print which came in at 8.6% on expectations of 8.3%. The second blow was the lowest reading for the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, ever. Yes, you heard that right. Those who took heart at Bostic’s comments that the Fed could pause …
Fed Vice Chairperson Lael Brainerd’s comments on Thursday supported the hawkish thesis I’ve been repeating for many months, and arguably took the quick end to Fed tightening off the table for now. Despite a few glimmers of hope and some evidence that headline inflation has peaked, the latest readings remains well above the central bank’s target level. Hence, I reiterate …