Category Archive

SUMMARY CONCLUSIONS Bottom line:  The combination of the inflation fight dragging on, the labor market remaining resilient, no Fed easing, the economy continuing to move towards some type of landing, and the ongoing lowering of forward corporate profit expectations will likely limit overall equity market upside potential, and arguably raises the odds for a challenging period going forward.   Today’s much …

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I did a deep dive into my sector (GICS L-1) work last week. Although there remains an elevated level of headline macro news and the ongoing tug of war regarding the future path of Fed policy, my key indicators have remained quite stable and are not suggesting any major sector changes at this time. With that being said, …

Executive Summary I did a deep dive into my sector (GICS L-1) work last week.  After making several small changes last month, including an upgrade of Technology, my work has not suggested any changes.  Interestingly, despite the rumblings in the market caused by the recent banking chaos and the market’s dramatically changing Fed expectations, the key 8-panel indicators and metrics …

Executive Summary We did a deep dive into our sector (GICS L-1) work and have updated our thoughts.  We are reiterating our mainly Growth above Neutral view (HC, Staples, Utilities, Energy, and Tech) and our below Neutral Cyclicals (CD, Materials, Industrials, Financials and Comm Services) weighting.  Please note that Industrials and Materials were downgraded again from Tilt Below to Full …

Executive Summary We did a deep dive into our sector (GICS L-1) work and have updated our thoughts.  We are reiterating our mainly Growth above Neutral view (HC, Staples, Tech, Energy, and Utilities) and our below Neutral Cyclicals (CD, Materials, Industrials, Financials and Comm Services) weighting. Despite the ongoing rally in the S&P 500 having found new fuel in the …

Executive Summary We did a deep dive into our sector (GICS L-1) work and have updated our recommendations.  We are making the following changes:  Lowering CD (from Tilt Below to Full Below) and Financials/Materials (from Neutral to Tilt Below).  We are also raising HC/Staples (from Tilt Above to Full Above) and Utilities (from Neutral to Tilt Above).    Our outlook …

Summary Conclusions Bottom line:  We are reiterating our unfavorable view on equities, and we continue to target 3600-3500 as our next downside target.   Be careful.  Despite the possibilities of oversold tactical bounces, our key indicators are weakening and nowhere near negative extremes, which suggests downside risk remains.  Based on our work, we have the following high level thoughts: Monetary …

Executive Summary We did a deep dive into our sector (GICS L-1) work and have updated our recommendations.  We are making the following changes:  Lowering Consumer Discretionary (from Tilt Above Benchmark to Tilt Below) and Industrials (from Neutral to Tilt Below).  We are also raising Staples (from Neutral to Tilt Above).    The tactical outlook remains challenging, but our indicators …

Summary Conclusions Bottom line:  We are reiterating our unfavorable view on equities, and we continue to target 3600-3500 as our next downside target.   Be careful.  Despite the possibilities of oversold tactical bounces, our key indicators are weakening and nowhere near negative extremes, which suggests downside risk remains.  Based on our work, we have the following high level thoughts: Monetary …

Executive Summary We did a deep dive into our sector (GICS L-1) work and have updated our recommendations.  We are making the following changes:  Lowering Energy from Above Benchmark to Tilt Above, Lowering Financials from Tilt Above to Neutral, Raising Utilities from Below Benchmark to Tilt Below.  The tactical outlook is uncertain and dependent on whether a Ukraine/Russia peace deal …