Discretionary extending run after breakout vs. Staples

January 26, 2023 in Technical Strategy

Markets have ground higher in a way that seems perplexing to most investors who don’t utilize technical analysis.  While many are concentrating on earnings, or the endgame for Fed rate hikes, or studying 200-day moving averages (m.a.), Equity indices have successfully rallied above meaningful downtrend lines while many sector ETFs like Financials, Discretionary, Materials and naturally Communication Services have pushed …

MSFT rebound leads SPX back while NYSE A/D line breaks out

in Technical Strategy

US equity markets continue to show signs of resilience following MSFT’s sharp rebound from early losses following its warning of a further slowdown in Sales and weaker outlook for its cloud business.  SPX managed to completely regain early losses to close flat on the session, rallying over 60 SPX points to finish right at the highs of the session.  As …

2023 Technical Outlook: Bear Market Lows Likely in Place

in Technical Strategy

Year-end Target (SPX) 4500 Click HERE to download the full report in PDF format. Globally, 2023 should be a transitionary year where SPX enjoys a far better year than 2022.Most weakness could be concentrated in Q2 before sharp rallies into Fall and a stairstepping rally into year-end. Increasingly, it’s right to expect that markets have made theirbear market bottoms last …

SOX breakout helping to fuel Technology’s comeback

in Technical Strategy

The 2022 bear market looks to be on thin ice – The SPX’s second straight day higher has successfully broken out above January 2023 highs.  This is a positive development which not only has surpassed minor downtrends from last Fall, but also is serving to exceed the entire downtrend from last January.  This is also occurring in the NASDAQ Composite …

Natural Gas looks close to bottoming out, technically

in Technical Strategy

The turn back higher Friday occurred on fairly broad-based participation with an even more pronounced level of volume into Up vs Down stocks.  Yet, markets seem to be at a pivotal nature yet again, after a sharp rally which has not done much to improve the short-term structure. Treasury yields look to have snapped back into the recent range that …

Commodity rally likely continues with Dollar, Yields under pressure

January 19, 2023 in Technical Strategy

Equities continue to show signs of minor consolidation of early January gains, and while bounces could happen into Friday/Monday, additional pullbacks look to be possible into next week.  This would line up with cyclical projections for a possible low in late January.  However, the degree to which US Dollar and Yields have broken down technically argues against an immediate reversal …

VIX plunge to multi-month lows nearing support by end of week

January 17, 2023 in Technical Strategy

The near-term rally in US Equities hasn’t shown much sign of veering off course following a very successful first 10 days of 2023.  While this rally is following the pre-election year playbook for Q1, it is quickly nearing the next most important area of resistance which is found at $QQQ $286 into end of week. DeMark indicators will line up …

Upticks – January 2023

January 17, 2023 in Technical Strategy

Happy New Year to All! Update 2023 has gotten underway with a far more robust rally than many were expecting to kick off the new year.  Some of this has been difficult to see given Technology’s underperformance and its weighting in the major indices.  Sectors like Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, Real Estate and Materials are all up more than 5% …