Technology is disappointing but Healthcare coming to the rescue

in Technical Strategy

The important takeaway for all investors Wednesday focused on Stock indices being able to rally sharply off the lows despite poor Tech earnings as rates followed through further to the downside.  That’s an important point, and while I don’t normally utilize news to determine stock index movement anyhow, it shows us all that markets are focusing more on interest rate …

Factors that might lead to a temporary stallout/reversal

October 25, 2022 in Technical Strategy

SPX is now officially above the aforementioned upside target of 3850, yet time-based targets were still a bit early to suggest a turn on Tuesday, pinpointing Wednesday-Friday as a better area where stock indices might pause/reverse course.   Those time targets are derived from a combination of short-term cycles and DeMark exhaustion combined with Elliott-wave targets in both price and time.  …

When will China be safe to buy?  FXI Technical analysis

in Technical Strategy

The recent bounce has helped to bring US Equity indices ever closer to an area that will be important resistance into late October.  While this bounce was largely built on Uber-bearishness, near-term oversold breadth and momentum, the rally happened yet again from a cyclical area of importance, obeying the mid-month cyclical rhythm that has provided quite a few turns thus …

Technology showing initial signs of trying to bottom

in Technical Strategy

Note: I will not be publishing a video today due to travel arrangements. Thank you for your understanding. The near-term uptrend from last Thursdays’ lows remains intact for $SPX despite the late day jitters, and minor weakness hasn’t been sufficient to shake the uptrend that started with last Thursday’s successful reversal off the lows.  Until/unless 3600 is breached, it’s still …

October 2022 Technical Outlook

in Technical Strategy

Conclusions Stock indices might encounter volatility into early November but are likely to bottom and rally into mid-to-late December.  Trends remain bearish, but overly pessimistic sentiment combined with better breadth and sector participation gives some reason for hope on a larger Q4 bounce. Treasury Yields are approaching short-term peaks that likely take yields down into December, directly coinciding with a …

Energy holding up extraordinarily well despite WTI Crude selloff

October 18, 2022 in Technical Strategy

The near-term moment of truth is approaching for SPX, as it was discussed how 3800 area should be initial strong resistance for this rise (Technically 3820 for S&P Futures, 3807 SPX cash). Overall, it’s encouraging how well various sectors are holding up lately, with Financials and Industrials showing sharp gains over the past week and outperformance over SPX. Yet, $XLK …

Here’s what needs to happen to think SPX is “Out of the woods”

October 17, 2022 in Technical Strategy

Monday’s 2% rally helped recent stabilization attempts gain a bit more traction, and breadth expanded to about 6/1 bullish all 11 sectors experienced gains. 8 of 11 sectors finished up more than +2% on the day, and REITS and Technology rose the most, while Staples and Energy lagged.  However, as seen on daily charts below, this recent strength over the …

Crude oil looks close to bottoming while USDJPY is nearing a peak

in Technical Strategy

SPX has now declined 7 of the last 9 weeks, and while a larger rebound does lie ahead, the near-term remains tricky and volatile.   Looking at Friday’s action, the sudden about-face doesn’t completely negate the positives of Thursday’s sharp rebound, but it’s vital that SPX hold above 3577 into next week. Below that level argues for a full retest and …