Category Archive

Good Evening: Stocks had their third consecutive weekly decline after a positive start to Friday morning was wiped out. The market has experienced elevated volatility since Jay Powell gave the doves very little to hang onto in his Jackson Hole speech. While investors seemed initially comforted by the jobs report because it had some positive elements, like a rise in …

Good evening: “Avoid big losses. That’s the way to really make money over the years.”– Julian Robertson Robertson, the Wall Street investor who with a handful of others pushed short selling into the mainstream, helped to create the modern hedge fund industry. He died on Tuesday at his home in Manhattan. We begin this week’s note with his quote on …

Good Evening: The market had its first down week after a strong rally. Macro concerns are high and there’s no shortage of bears on the street. At the same time, inflation rolling over has proven a strong catalyst. When inflation is high bonds and stocks are positively correlated, which gives institutions nowhere to run and nowhere to hide. When the …

Good evening: What a summer rally it’s been for markets. Amid the hubbub of recessionary fears, 40-year-high inflation, war, supply chain challenges, and rising rates, everyone has become fixated on a new question: Given the recent rally, is the bear market of 2022 over? Tom Lee, our Head of Research, forecasted a “treacherous” first half of negative market returns. For …

Good Evening: The market had a strong week and Consumer Discretionary and Technology led the gains.  However, a negative catalyst in the form of exceptionally strong jobs numbers proved an obstacle for the rally. As economic data has been slowing in some areas, speculation had been mounting that a dovish pivot for the Fed might materialize sooner than markets were …

Good evening: Markets moved higher for the second consecutive week — and it was a big one. The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates. Big Tech reported earnings, and Apple has reached its highest level in nearly four months after posting FQ3 results that were better-than-expected and saying sales should “accelerate” in the current quarter despite U.S. economic uncertainty. “There is no obvious …

Good Evening: Markets had a relatively strong week, given what we’ve been seeing, with a sour ending. This S&P 500 actually got above 4,000 today briefly but retreated into the close. Snap reported earnings after the bell Thursday and had a significant miss. Several downgrades followed. The company was down nearly 40% into the close. The action in Friday’s market …

Good Evening: Our research heads engaged in a lively discussion Thursday morning in New York. Here are the highlights: Tom Lee, Head of Research: The Fed has an optics problem The other day, Lee noticed something when shopping at the grocery store: prices were lower, and some items were on sale. It underscores his belief that beneath the 41-year-high inflation …

Good Evening: Markets had a strong week after the 4th of July holiday although light volume during peak summer vacation time likely kept a lid on big moves. The market has quietly drifted up 5% in the last three weeks which has been among the longest uninterrupted rallies of 2022 so far. There is some reason for hesitance as to …

Good Evening: In times of uncertainty, Abraham Lincoln quoted lines from Shakespeare’s Hamlet. “There’s a divinity that shapes our ends, / Rough-hew them how we will.” Hamlet is acknowledging that there are many things outside of his control. The point is that much of life, and markets, is shaped by chance and accident, which is why it’s a good idea …