GA runoff as Congress faces 12/16 Government funding deadline

in US Policy

Tuesday is a big day in the political world with the Georgia Senate race runoff between incumbent Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Hershel Walker.  While the strong Democratic showing in the midterm election assured that there wouldn’t be a change of control in the Senate, a Warnock victory on Tuesday would take a lot of pressure off of …

Congress Averts Rail Strike

in US Policy

In my youth I worked on Capitol Hill running a House and Senate office. It gave me an inside view of how Congress operates, and one of the secrets is that Congress can move with remarkable speed if they want. While we all know about the filibuster, partisan deadlock, and short work weeks, the potential national rail strike posed a …

Fed releases November FOMC minutes, Congress returns

November 28, 2022 in US Policy

Last Wednesday the Federal Reserve released the minutes from the November FOMC meeting.  At the time of the meeting the Committee released a rather dovish statement that was followed by a more hawkish Chair press conference.  At the time I cautioned that, while hawkish, the Chair made clear that a step down from the 75bps increases was possible at the …

Fed Minutes and Lame Duck Congress

November 21, 2022 in US Policy

While Wednesday may be a slow news day as investors and everyone else make final preparations for putting turkeys in the oven, for financial markets it is a big day as the Federal Reserve releases the minutes from the November Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting.  As I have written before, the minutes act as a fact check on the …

New Congress leadership decided, much work to do before yearend

in US Policy

This past week saw the framework established for the new Congress which gets sworn in on January 3. Speaker Nancy Pelosi ended her 20 years as leader of the House Democrats serving as the first, and only, woman Speaker. Much has been written about the role she played in managing what at times was a narrow majority as she led …

Election results – House appears R, Senate remains D

in US Policy

A week after the US went to the polls, control of the Senate remains in Democratic hands while the House appears to be headed towards a narrow Republican majority. The final counting in some key races has yet to be finalized. News organizations have projected the final count will be 216 Democratic seats and 219 Republicans.  A majority is 218. …

Elections: No Red Wave but Divided Government Likely

in US Policy

It’s Election Day plus 3 and key races remain undecided. However, at this point, it appears that the Republicans will have a very narrow majority in the House and that control of the Senate will have to wait for the December 6 run-off in Georgia. Both polls and history had pointed to a Republican wave election but the wave ended …

Divided Government – Policy implications

in US Policy

While yesterday’s election were not the large red Republican wave that polls had anticipated it appears that Republicans will narrowly take control of the House, and that control of the Senate is likely to be decided in a GA runoff. Democratic candidates did better than expected in both the House and Senate.  In the House at this point only two …

Midterm Elections Are Days Away

in US Policy

With the midterm elections only a few days away the basic forecast seems unchanged; the Republicans will take control of the House and the Senate remains too close to call but polling indicates a movement to Republican candidates as election day approaches. While the summer saw voter interest shift to non-economic issues such as abortion and the Capitol riot on …

Fed Day Wednesday and Elections one week to go

in US Policy

After a month of discussion about the next move by the Fed’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC), decision day comes this week. The FOMC starts to meet on Tuesday and around 2:00 PM on Wednesday the Fed will announce the rate move. A 75pbs increase is widely anticipated. In my view, as Fed Chair Jay Powell has done a good …