Macro Strategy - Thomas J. Lee, CFA

At Fundstrat, our Macro Strategy dives deep into the intricate webs of global economic trends, offering a panoramic view of the financial landscape. Our seasoned team harnesses a wealth of experience and data-driven methodologies to forecast market trajectories, ensuring you are equipped with actionable insights to capitalize on macroeconomic shifts. With our macro research, not only do you stay ahead of the curve, but you're also empowered with strategic intelligence to navigate market complexities with precision.

About the Strategist

leadership image

Thomas J. Lee, CFA – Co-Founder, Head of Research

Thomas Lee is a Managing Partner and the Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. He is an accomplished Wall Street strategist with over 25 years of experience in equity research, and has been top ranked by Institutional Investor every year since 1998. Prior to co-founding Fundstrat, he served as J.P. Morgan’s Chief Equity Strategist from 2007 to 2014, and previously as Managing Director at Salomon Smith Barney.

Our Approach

Actionable Investment Ideas

  • Tailored recommendations based on macro trends
  • Sector-specific actionable insights for optimal portfolio positioning
  • Frequent updates ensuring timely decision-making

Global Economic Health

  • Periodic assessments of global GDP growth
  • Evaluations of leading and lagging economic indicators
  • In-depth analysis of global trade patterns

Monetary Policies and Central Banks

  • Insights into global central bank actions
  • Predictive analysis of interest rate shifts
  • Assessment of quantitative easing impacts

Inflation Dynamics

  • Comprehensive reviews of inflationary trends
  • Insights into core vs. headline inflation
  • Evaluations of factors driving inflationary pressures

Interest Rates and Fixed Income Markets

  • Analysis of yield curves and their implications
  • Predictions on interest rate trajectories
  • Insights into global bond markets

Sector Weighting

  • Sectoral analysis based on macroeconomic shifts
  • Recommendations on sector allocations
  • Insights into emerging sector opportunities

Currency Markets

  • Deep dives into major and minor currency pairs
  • Analysis of geopolitical events affecting currency values
  • Predictions on future currency strength and weaknesses

Commodities and Energy

  • Examination of oil, gold, and other commodity price movements
  • Insights into supply-demand dynamics
  • Predictions based on geopolitical and environmental factors

Emerging Markets

  • Comprehensive analysis of burgeoning economies
  • Evaluations of risks and opportunities in specific regions
  • Insights into trade dynamics affecting emerging markets

Demographics and Social Trends

  • Analysis of global demographic shifts
  • Insights into supply-demand dynamics
  • Predictions based on geopolitical and environmental factors

Geopolitical Risks

  • Comprehensive assessment of global political events
  • Predictions on market reactions to geopolitical tensions
  • Analysis of potential economic sanctions and their impacts

Sustainability and Climate Economics

  • Examination of oil, gold, and other commodity price movements
  • Insights into supply-demand dynamics
  • Predictions based on geopolitical and environmental factors

Research and Coverage

Reports

First Word

Delve deep into a holistic market overview with our "First Word" reports. Scrutinize macro indicators, current trends, and sector rotations, and unravel fact-based evidence that points towards prospective market opportunities.

6 reasons we see risk/reward shifting favorably for equities given oversold conditions

The 6% decline in equities since early April has been painful. And there are some who believe the "top is in" for 2024, and possibly a larger "top" (for those who think the Fed potentially now pivoting "hawkish"). But in our view,...

AAPL
AMD
AMZN
ANET
ASML
AXON
AXP
AYI
BLD
CARG
CAT
CDNS
CMG
COP
COST
CRM
CRWD
CVNA
DECK
DFH
EOG
EXP
FANG
FLS
GBX
GMS
GOOGL
GRMN
GWW
HCI
HIBB
HUBS
IBP
ISRG
JPM
KLAC
META
MLI
MPC
MSFT
NEU
NFLX
NOV
NOW
NSSC
NVDA
ODFL
ORCL
PANW
PLTR
PLUS
PSX
QQQ
REX
SEMR
SHAK
SMCI
SPOT
SPY
TDG
TPX
TREE
TSLA
TSMC
WING
WSM
ZS
Thomas Lee - April 21, 2024

⚡️FlashInsights

Dive into real-time market insights with Tom Lee as he navigates through crucial market dynamics and events pivotal to macro strategy. Stay informed, stay ahead.

Thomas J. Lee, CFA
Thomas J. Lee, CFA, CFA
Head of Research

Just a heads up I am on CNBC Closing Bell at 3:20pm ET * when stocks sell off on “war risk,” effects are short-lived * still see gas in the tank * Earnings are expected to be good = upside for stocks...

Apr 12
2:51 PM
Thomas J. Lee, CFA
Thomas J. Lee, CFA, CFA
Head of Research

We have marked the 5 most recent CPI reports below: * Stocks fell in each of the last 3 CPI reports * These are marked with red boxes * Notice how stocks recovered the entire loss within a week? This is not...

Apr 10
2:50 PM

Intraday Alerts

When the market takes unexpected turns, our "Intraday Alerts" come to your rescue. These short-form reports clarify significant market-moving events, ensuring you're never caught off-guard and always make informed decisions.

INTRADAY ALERT: March CPI creates max pain moment. Why is CPI "hot" but U Mich shows falling inflation expectations? "hot" CPI due to same issues --> auto insurance and auto-related

March CPI released came in "hot" with Core CPI of +0.36% vs Street of +0.30% and this is triggering a sizable sell-off in equities. This is fueling the skepticism of the "inflation is stubborn" cohorts, but as we discuss below, this is...

ABBV
AMZN
AXP
EXP
GOOGL
IMGN
META
NBIX
NEU
NVDA
SMLR
Thomas Lee - April 10, 2024

Granny Shots

Explore the market's latent potentials with "Granny Shots". This in-depth report accentuates dominant themes and trends, spotlighting individual stocks set to transcend market expectations.

6

Themes

Over
40

Stocks

  • Super Grannies
  • Sleeping grannies
  • Updated Monthly

Earnings

When earnings season rolls around, we've got you covered. Our comprehensive reports detail earning conditions, earning beats, and stock performance by sector, providing a clear and insightful analysis of the market's response to earnings releases.

Fundstrat 1Q24 Daily Earnings (EPS) Update - 4/19/24

Click HERE to view the report in PDF format.  * 41 companies are reporting this week. * Of the 66 companies that have reported so far (13% of the S&P 500): * Overall, 77% are beating estimates, and those that "beat" are...

Fundstrat Team - April 19, 2024

Weekly Roadmap

End your week with our "Weekly Roadmap", a summary that encapsulates our expert views and closing remarks for the week. This digest is crafted to bring all market happenings and our insights into one coherent context, ensuring you're well-informed and ready for the week ahead.

Stocks Sink After Israel-Iran Escalation

The S&P 500 has closed out its third consecutive down week, and there is no denying that investors had much to worry about this week. Stocks had already come under pressure last week with shrinking expectations for rate...

April 19, 2024

Media

Macro Minute Video

Visualize macro strategy insights with "Macro Minute". These concise video briefings furnish clients with a snapshot of present market opportunities and prevailing trends, ensuring you're always one step ahead in the investment game.

April 17, 2024

VIDEO: Tom Lee Macro Minute: Further de-leveraging short-term headwind (and reason to buy this dip slowly) but YE view intact

VIDEO: While this selloff, over the past few weeks, has been painful, it is creating some attractive entry points.  But the short-term headwind is the surge in VIX is prompting de-leveraging.  Mark Newton, our Head of Technical Strategy,...

Thomas J. Lee, CFA
Thomas J. Lee, CFA, CFA
Head of Research

Annual Outlook

As we look ahead, our annual outlook serves as a comprehensive guide for our clients, detailing our predictions and strategies for different sectors and indexes in the upcoming year. This outlook is crucial in helping our clients position themselves for future market developments.

D Array
Thu, Dec 7 11:00 AM ET

Tom Lee's 2024 Market Outlook

– 2024 Macro and Strategy Outlook – Key Sectors to Overweight & Potential Risks – EPS Outlook & S&P 500 Year-End Price Target

Tom Lee
Thomas J. Lee, CFA

Head of Research

Market Update Webinar

Stay abreast of market trends and have your queries resolved with our Market Update webinars. These sessions are designed to provide clarity on current market conditions and assist clients in strategizing accordingly.

Wed, Apr 17 2:00 PM ET

Tom Lee’s Granny Shots Stock List & Market Update – April 2024

We will provide the monthly update to our Super Granny Shots, as Tom Lee once again provides a comprehensive deep dive into the names we like the most in today’s...

Tom Lee
Thomas J. Lee, CFA

Head of Research

Tom Lee
Mark L. Newton, CMT

Head of Technical Strategy

Special Webinars

Our special webinars are dedicated to unraveling specific market phenomena such as inflation and other vital macro metrics. These sessions provide in-depth insights, aiding clients in navigating through complex market dynamics.

CEO Interviews

Leverage our extensive network as we sit down with prominent CEOs to gain firsthand insights into the landscape of their respective sectors or sub-industries. These interviews are a goldmine of information, offering unique perspectives that can significantly impact investment strategies.

Thu, May 9 2:00 PM ET

Zeta: The AI-Powered Marketing Cloud Making Sophisticated Marketing Simple

– Learn about the current marketing landscape, where fragmented tools, processes, and poorly integrated customer data hinder the creation of compelling marketing campaigns – Gain insight into how Zeta leverages a...

Tom Lee
Thomas J. Lee, CFA

Head of Research

Tom Lee
David Steinberg

Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO Zeta Global

Tom Lee
Chris Greiner

Expert Interviews

In our commitment to provide multi-faceted insights, we conduct interviews with technical experts and other key industry figures, shedding light on nuanced aspects of the market and bringing diverse perspectives to our clients.

Tue, Jan 9 11:00 AM ET

Technology & AI Outlook with Tom Lee and Dan Ives

Tom Lee
Thomas J. Lee, CFA

Head of Research

Tom Lee
Dan Ives

Managing Director, Equity Research at Wedbush Securities

Fund Managers Interviews

We delve into the minds of fund managers, exploring their strategies and approaches in navigating the complexities of the current macroeconomic landscape. These interviews offer a glimpse into the world of fund management, providing valuable takeaways for our clients.

Wed, Apr 10 11:00 AM ET

Blockchain Investment Group: A Fund of Funds Providing Access to Top Digital Asset Managers

Blockchain Investment Group is a crypto fund of funds that identifies, evaluates, and manages investments in crypto and blockchain-focused hedge funds. Agenda: Market Update from Tom Lee Introduction of Blockchain Investment Group Q&A with...

Tom Lee
Thomas J. Lee, CFA

Head of Research

Tom Lee
Sean Farrell

Head of Digital Asset Strategy

Tom Lee
Eric Weiss

Founder & CIO, BIG

Archives

Appearances Media Archives

Our researchers make appearances across a variety of media outlets including podcasts, TV shows, newspapers, and financial magazines. We diligently track and archive these appearances, creating a comprehensive media library that our clients can refer to at their convenience.

Video: Nvidia stock still has room 'to push higher': Strategist

20 days ago

CNBC Media Archives

We maintain an archive of CNBC appearances by Tom Lee, our Head of Research, highlighting his role as a contributor of note to a premier news platform. Much more than occasional opportunities, these are regular invitations to weigh in on market-moving topics. The habit of seeing Tom on a CNBC screen underscores the degree to which the financial media recognizes his ability to consistently generate market insights – which are also available to our subscribers in greater detail and in multiple formats via our research reports, videos, webinars, and client calls.

Video: Stocks can continue to outperform even if rates stay high, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee

3 days ago

Sample Reports

Probabilities suggest "hot" Feb core CPI above consensus of +0.30%. Jan "hot" CPI drove a 3% sell-off. But with "gas in the tank," this is a buy the dip moment.

VIDEO: February CPI is reported on Tuesday. I think there’s a risk that it’s a hot number, but it’s probably similar to January when you wanted to buy that 3% pullback that follows a hot CPI. (duration: 3:40)....

AIQ
AMD
AMZN
ARM
AXP
CDNS
COIN
GOOGL
IJR
IWM
LLY
MARA
META
NVDA
NVO
PYPL
XLF
XLI
March 11, 2024
reserach-mark image
Thomas Lee
Head of Research

January on track for >3% gain, solidifying 2024 to be positive (>92% probability) and suggests our 5,200 target might be low.

VIDEO: Even more important than FOMC or even macro this week is the Wed close.  Jan is on track to be positive and it supports our case for 5200 or even much higher (duration: 4:05).

AAPL
AMD
AMZN
ANET
AX
AXP
AYI
BELFB
BKNG
BLD
BLK
CARG
CAT
CDNS
CDRE
CMG
CRD
CRM
CRWD
CVNA
DBX
DECK
DFH
EG
ENVA
EXP
GBX
GMS
GOOGL
GRMN
GWW
HACK
HCI
HIBB
HY
IBP
IMGN
INTU
ISRG
IWM
JPM
KLAC
META
MLI
MNST
MPC
MSFT
NBIX
NEU
NFLX
NOW
NSIT
NSSC
NVDA
ODFL
OPFI
ORCL
OSW
PAGS
PANW
PBPB
PLUS
PSX
QLYS
QQQ
REX
ROCK
SCS
SEMR
SHAK
SMCI
SMLR
SSTK
TAST
TDG
TPX
TREE
TSLA
V
VRTX
WING
WSM
XLF
XLI
XLK
ZS
January 30, 2024
reserach-mark image
Thomas Lee
Head of Research

Latest Publications

6 reasons we see risk/reward shifting favorably for equities given oversold conditions

The 6% decline in equities since early April has been painful. And there are some who believe the "top is in" for 2024, and possibly a larger "top" (for those who think the Fed potentially now pivoting "hawkish")....

AAPL
AMD
AMZN
ANET
ASML
AXON
AXP
AYI
BLD
CARG
CAT
CDNS
CMG
COP
COST
CRM
CRWD
CVNA
DECK
DFH
EOG
EXP
FANG
FLS
GBX
GMS
GOOGL
GRMN
GWW
HCI
HIBB
HUBS
IBP
ISRG
JPM
KLAC
META
MLI
MPC
MSFT
NEU
NFLX
NOV
NOW
NSSC
NVDA
ODFL
ORCL
PANW
PLTR
PLUS
PSX
QQQ
REX
SEMR
SHAK
SMCI
SPOT
SPY
TDG
TPX
TREE
TSLA
TSMC
WING
WSM
ZS
April 21, 2024
reserach-mark image
Thomas Lee
Head of Research

5 signs the painful "de-leveraging" process might be nearing an end.

As many are aware, we have viewed the bleeding of stocks in the past two weeks as part of a painful de-leveraging process. This stems from the dual growing risks of (i) disappointment around inflation trends and (ii)...

AAPL
AMD
AMZN
ANET
AXON
AXP
AYI
BLD
CARG
CAT
CDNS
CMG
COP
COST
CRM
CRWD
CVNA
DECK
DFH
EOG
EXP
FANG
FLS
GBX
GMS
GOOGL
GRMN
GWW
HCI
HIBB
HUBS
IBP
ISRG
JPM
KLAC
META
MLI
MPC
MSFT
NEU
NFLX
NOV
NOW
NSSC
NVDA
ODFL
ORCL
PANW
PLTR
PLUS
PSX
REX
SEMR
SHAK
SMCI
SPOT
TDG
TPX
TREE
TSLA
WING
WSM
ZS
April 18, 2024
reserach-mark image
Thomas Lee
Head of Research

VIDEO: Tom Lee Macro Minute: Further de-leveraging short-term headwind (and reason to buy this dip slowly) but YE view intact

VIDEO: While this selloff, over the past few weeks, has been painful, it is creating some attractive entry points.  But the short-term headwind is the surge in VIX is prompting de-leveraging.  Mark Newton, our Head of Technical Strategy,...

April 17, 2024
reserach-mark image
Thomas Lee
Head of Research

GRANNY SHOTS: Apr 2024 rebalance +7 adds. SMID Granny Shots +20 stocks. April Super and Sleeper Grannies. WEBINAR WED!!!

This note is focused on the quarterly rebalance of Granny Shots, and also provides the updated list of Super and Sleeper Grannies. We view Granny Shots as a core portfolio of stocks and the portfolio is adjusted to...

AAPL
AMD
AMZN
ANET
AX
AXON
AXP
AYI
BELFB
BKNG
BLD
BLK
CARG
CAT
CDNS
CDRE
CMG
COP
COST
CRD
CRM
CRWD
CVNA
DBX
DECK
DFH
EG
ENVA
EOG
EXP
FANG
FLS
GBX
GMS
GOOGL
GRMN
GWW
HCI
HIBB
HUBS
HY
IBP
IMGN
INTU
ISRG
JPM
KLAC
META
MLI
MNST
MPC
MSFT
NBIX
NEU
NFLX
NOV
NOW
NSIT
NSSC
NVDA
ODFL
OPFI
ORCL
OSW
PAGS
PANW
PBPB
PLTR
PLUS
PSX
QLYS
REX
ROCK
SCS
SEMR
SHAK
SMCI
SMLR
SPOT
SSTK
TAST
TDG
TPX
TREE
TSLA
V
VRTX
WING
WSM
ZS
April 16, 2024
reserach-mark image
Thomas Lee
Head of Research

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