Macro Strategy - Thomas J. Lee, CFA

At Fundstrat, our Macro Strategy dives deep into the intricate webs of global economic trends, offering a panoramic view of the financial landscape. Our seasoned team harnesses a wealth of experience and data-driven methodologies to forecast market trajectories, ensuring you are equipped with actionable insights to capitalize on macroeconomic shifts. With our macro research, not only do you stay ahead of the curve, but you're also empowered with strategic intelligence to navigate market complexities with precision.

About the Strategist

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Thomas J. Lee, CFA – Co-Founder, Head of Research

Thomas Lee is a Managing Partner and the Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. He is an accomplished Wall Street strategist with over 25 years of experience in equity research, and has been top ranked by Institutional Investor every year since 1998. Prior to co-founding Fundstrat, he served as J.P. Morgan’s Chief Equity Strategist from 2007 to 2014, and previously as Managing Director at Salomon Smith Barney.

Our Approach

Actionable Investment Ideas

  • Tailored recommendations based on macro trends
  • Sector-specific actionable insights for optimal portfolio positioning
  • Frequent updates ensuring timely decision-making

Global Economic Health

  • Periodic assessments of global GDP growth
  • Evaluations of leading and lagging economic indicators
  • In-depth analysis of global trade patterns

Monetary Policies and Central Banks

  • Insights into global central bank actions
  • Predictive analysis of interest rate shifts
  • Assessment of quantitative easing impacts

Inflation Dynamics

  • Comprehensive reviews of inflationary trends
  • Insights into core vs. headline inflation
  • Evaluations of factors driving inflationary pressures

Interest Rates and Fixed Income Markets

  • Analysis of yield curves and their implications
  • Predictions on interest rate trajectories
  • Insights into global bond markets

Sector Weighting

  • Sectoral analysis based on macroeconomic shifts
  • Recommendations on sector allocations
  • Insights into emerging sector opportunities

Currency Markets

  • Deep dives into major and minor currency pairs
  • Analysis of geopolitical events affecting currency values
  • Predictions on future currency strength and weaknesses

Commodities and Energy

  • Examination of oil, gold, and other commodity price movements
  • Insights into supply-demand dynamics
  • Predictions based on geopolitical and environmental factors

Emerging Markets

  • Comprehensive analysis of burgeoning economies
  • Evaluations of risks and opportunities in specific regions
  • Insights into trade dynamics affecting emerging markets

Demographics and Social Trends

  • Analysis of global demographic shifts
  • Insights into supply-demand dynamics
  • Predictions based on geopolitical and environmental factors

Geopolitical Risks

  • Comprehensive assessment of global political events
  • Predictions on market reactions to geopolitical tensions
  • Analysis of potential economic sanctions and their impacts

Sustainability and Climate Economics

  • Examination of oil, gold, and other commodity price movements
  • Insights into supply-demand dynamics
  • Predictions based on geopolitical and environmental factors

Research and Coverage

Reports

First Word

Delve deep into a holistic market overview with our "First Word" reports. Scrutinize macro indicators, current trends, and sector rotations, and unravel fact-based evidence that points towards prospective market opportunities.

2025 OUTLOOK (Lee): Two “puts” make a right - After 20% back-to-back, Mid-year 7,000, Year-end 6,600

PLEASE JOIN US TOMORROW AT 11AM ET FOR OUR 2025 YEAR AHEAD OUTLOOK. Register HERE. More in today's Macro Minute Video linked here (duration: 4:52). CLICK HERE to view our 2025 Outlook deck in PDF format. There are strong tailwinds supportive of stocks...

IWM
XLF
XLI
Thomas Lee, CFA - December 10, 2024

⚡️FlashInsights

Dive into real-time market insights with Tom Lee as he navigates through crucial market dynamics and events pivotal to macro strategy. Stay informed, stay ahead.

Thomas Lee, CFA
Thomas Lee, CFA
Head of Research

Bitcoin $BTC is rising today and back to $93k. * fell from $99k to $91k * found support near 20 day moving avg $90k Polymarket betting markets see 74% odds of $100k in 2024. We believe odds are higher $MSTR $SMLR $MARA...

Nov 27
11:02 AM
Thomas Lee, CFA
Thomas Lee, CFA
Head of Research

In our view, Thanksgiving rally Intact * $NVDA earnings reported * Whether market happy or sad * It’s behind us * Meaning it’s a "clearing event" Please BUY THE DIP (if there is one) $IWM $QQQ $SMLR $MSTR $KRE

Nov 20
5:29 PM

Intraday Alerts

When the market takes unexpected turns, our "Intraday Alerts" come to your rescue. These short-form reports clarify significant market-moving events, ensuring you're never caught off-guard and always make informed decisions.

INTRADAY ALERT: Oct Core PCE +0.27% MoM is +0.23% ex-magazines. Affirms inflation "falling like a rock" and Fed stays dovish

Today's Oct Core PCE came in at +0.27% MoM, slightly better than consensus of +0.28%. The YoY came in at +2.80% YoY. The details of the report show inflation is far weaker than Core PCE suggests:

IJR
IWM
KRE
MSTR
SMLR
XLF
XLI
Thomas Lee, CFA - November 27, 2024

Earnings

When earnings season rolls around, we've got you covered. Our comprehensive reports detail earning conditions, earning beats, and stock performance by sector, providing a clear and insightful analysis of the market's response to earnings releases.

Fundstrat 3Q24 Daily Earnings (EPS) Update – 12/05/2024

Click HERE to view the report in PDF format.  * 12 companies are reporting this week. * Of the 491 companies that have reported so far (98% of the S&P 500): * Overall, 77% are beating estimates, and those that "beat" are beating...

Fundstrat Team - December 5, 2024

Weekly Roadmap

End your week with our "Weekly Roadmap", a summary that encapsulates our expert views and closing remarks for the week. This digest is crafted to bring all market happenings and our insights into one coherent context, ensuring you're well-informed and ready for the week ahead.

Stocks Slip Into 'Zone of Uncertainty.'

“Each second we live is a new and unique moment of the universe, a moment that never was before and never will be again” ― Pablo Casals

RSP
December 13, 2024

Media

Macro Minute Video

Visualize macro strategy insights with "Macro Minute". These concise video briefings furnish clients with a snapshot of present market opportunities and prevailing trends, ensuring you're always one step ahead in the investment game.

December 9, 2024

VIDEO FLASH: NY Fed consumer survey shows improvement, but could be political bias. Markets now entering "zone of uncertainty

VIDEO: The risk/reward is challenged near term due to the key incoming macro data, but we still see a YE rally

Thomas Lee, CFA
Thomas Lee, CFA
Head of Research

Annual Outlook

As we look ahead, our annual outlook serves as a comprehensive guide for our clients, detailing our predictions and strategies for different sectors and indexes in the upcoming year. This outlook is crucial in helping our clients position themselves for future market developments.

Market Update Webinar

Stay abreast of market trends and have your queries resolved with our Market Update webinars. These sessions are designed to provide clarity on current market conditions and assist clients in strategizing accordingly.

Special Webinars

Our special webinars are dedicated to unraveling specific market phenomena such as inflation and other vital macro metrics. These sessions provide in-depth insights, aiding clients in navigating through complex market dynamics.

CEO Interviews

Leverage our extensive network as we sit down with prominent CEOs to gain firsthand insights into the landscape of their respective sectors or sub-industries. These interviews are a goldmine of information, offering unique perspectives that can significantly impact investment strategies.

Expert Interviews

In our commitment to provide multi-faceted insights, we conduct interviews with technical experts and other key industry figures, shedding light on nuanced aspects of the market and bringing diverse perspectives to our clients.

Fund Managers Interviews

We delve into the minds of fund managers, exploring their strategies and approaches in navigating the complexities of the current macroeconomic landscape. These interviews offer a glimpse into the world of fund management, providing valuable takeaways for our clients.

Archives

Appearances Media Archives

Our researchers make appearances across a variety of media outlets including podcasts, TV shows, newspapers, and financial magazines. We diligently track and archive these appearances, creating a comprehensive media library that our clients can refer to at their convenience.

Market gains heavily dependent on Nvidia, tech: Strategist

23 days ago

CNBC Media Archives

We maintain an archive of CNBC appearances by Tom Lee, our Head of Research, highlighting his role as a contributor of note to a premier news platform. Much more than occasional opportunities, these are regular invitations to weigh in on market-moving topics. The habit of seeing Tom on a CNBC screen underscores the degree to which the financial media recognizes his ability to consistently generate market insights – which are also available to our subscribers in greater detail and in multiple formats via our research reports, videos, webinars, and client calls.

Bitcoin’s breakout is a precursor for equities through year-end, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee

3 days ago

Sample Reports

Probabilities suggest "hot" Feb core CPI above consensus of +0.30%. Jan "hot" CPI drove a 3% sell-off. But with "gas in the tank," this is a buy the dip moment.

VIDEO: February CPI is reported on Tuesday. I think there’s a risk that it’s a hot number, but it’s probably similar to January when you wanted to buy that 3% pullback that follows a hot CPI. (duration: 3:40)....

AIQ
AMD
AMZN
ARM
AXP
CDNS
COIN
GOOGL
IJR
IWM
LLY
MARA
META
NVDA
NVO
PYPL
XLF
XLI
March 11, 2024
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Thomas Lee, CFA
Head of Research

January on track for >3% gain, solidifying 2024 to be positive (>92% probability) and suggests our 5,200 target might be low.

VIDEO: Even more important than FOMC or even macro this week is the Wed close.  Jan is on track to be positive and it supports our case for 5200 or even much higher (duration: 4:05).

AAPL
AMD
AMZN
ANET
AX
AXP
AYI
BELFB
BKNG
BLD
BLK
CARG
CAT
CDNS
CDRE
CMG
CRD
CRM
CRWD
CVNA
DBX
DECK
DFH
EG
ENVA
EXP
GBX
GMS
GOOGL
GRMN
GWW
HACK
HCI
HIBB
HY
IBP
IMGN
INTU
ISRG
IWM
JPM
KLAC
META
MLI
MNST
MPC
MSFT
NBIX
NEU
NFLX
NOW
NSIT
NSSC
NVDA
ODFL
OPFI
ORCL
OSW
PAGS
PANW
PBPB
PLUS
PSX
QLYS
QQQ
REX
ROCK
SCS
SEMR
SHAK
SMCI
SMLR
SSTK
TAST
TDG
TPX
TREE
TSLA
V
VRTX
WING
WSM
XLF
XLI
XLK
ZS
January 30, 2024
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Thomas Lee, CFA
Head of Research

Latest Publications

2025 OUTLOOK (Lee): Two “puts” make a right - After 20% back-to-back, Mid-year 7,000, Year-end 6,600

PLEASE JOIN US TOMORROW AT 11AM ET FOR OUR 2025 YEAR AHEAD OUTLOOK. Register HERE. More in today's Macro Minute Video linked here (duration: 4:52). CLICK HERE to view our 2025 Outlook deck in PDF format. There are strong...

IWM
XLF
XLI
December 10, 2024
reserach-mark image
Thomas Lee, CFA
Head of Research

VIDEO FLASH: NY Fed consumer survey shows improvement, but could be political bias. Markets now entering "zone of uncertainty

VIDEO: The risk/reward is challenged near term due to the key incoming macro data, but we still see a YE rally

December 9, 2024
reserach-mark image
Thomas Lee, CFA
Head of Research

VIDEO FLASH: Trump plans to keep Powell = near-term positive. Nov CPI released on Thu. Syria toppling over weekend barely moves Bitcoin (proxy for risk-assets).

VIDEO: There were several notable headlines over the weekend, including the toppling of Syria and President Trump interview on NBC's Meet the Press

December 8, 2024
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Thomas Lee, CFA
Head of Research

Trump plans to keep Powell = near-term positive. Nov CPI released on Thu. Syria toppling over weekend barely moves Bitcoin (proxy for risk-assets).

VIDEO: There were several notable headlines over the weekend, including the toppling of Syria and President Trump interview on NBC's Meet the Press (duration: 3:24).

IJR
IWM
KRE
MSTR
SMLR
XLF
XLI
December 8, 2024
reserach-mark image
Thomas Lee, CFA
Head of Research

Book a Meeting

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