Macro Strategy - Thomas J. Lee, CFA

At Fundstrat, our Macro Strategy dives deep into the intricate webs of global economic trends, offering a panoramic view of the financial landscape. Our seasoned team harnesses a wealth of experience and data-driven methodologies to forecast market trajectories, ensuring you are equipped with actionable insights to capitalize on macroeconomic shifts. With our macro research, not only do you stay ahead of the curve, but you're also empowered with strategic intelligence to navigate market complexities with precision.

About the Strategist

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Thomas J. Lee, CFA – Co-Founder, Head of Research

Thomas Lee is a Managing Partner and the Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. He is an accomplished Wall Street strategist with over 25 years of experience in equity research, and has been top ranked by Institutional Investor every year since 1998. Prior to co-founding Fundstrat, he served as J.P. Morgan’s Chief Equity Strategist from 2007 to 2014, and previously as Managing Director at Salomon Smith Barney.

Our Approach

Actionable Investment Ideas

  • Tailored recommendations based on macro trends
  • Sector-specific actionable insights for optimal portfolio positioning
  • Frequent updates ensuring timely decision-making

Global Economic Health

  • Periodic assessments of global GDP growth
  • Evaluations of leading and lagging economic indicators
  • In-depth analysis of global trade patterns

Monetary Policies and Central Banks

  • Insights into global central bank actions
  • Predictive analysis of interest rate shifts
  • Assessment of quantitative easing impacts

Inflation Dynamics

  • Comprehensive reviews of inflationary trends
  • Insights into core vs. headline inflation
  • Evaluations of factors driving inflationary pressures

Interest Rates and Fixed Income Markets

  • Analysis of yield curves and their implications
  • Predictions on interest rate trajectories
  • Insights into global bond markets

Sector Weighting

  • Sectoral analysis based on macroeconomic shifts
  • Recommendations on sector allocations
  • Insights into emerging sector opportunities

Currency Markets

  • Deep dives into major and minor currency pairs
  • Analysis of geopolitical events affecting currency values
  • Predictions on future currency strength and weaknesses

Commodities and Energy

  • Examination of oil, gold, and other commodity price movements
  • Insights into supply-demand dynamics
  • Predictions based on geopolitical and environmental factors

Emerging Markets

  • Comprehensive analysis of burgeoning economies
  • Evaluations of risks and opportunities in specific regions
  • Insights into trade dynamics affecting emerging markets

Demographics and Social Trends

  • Analysis of global demographic shifts
  • Insights into supply-demand dynamics
  • Predictions based on geopolitical and environmental factors

Geopolitical Risks

  • Comprehensive assessment of global political events
  • Predictions on market reactions to geopolitical tensions
  • Analysis of potential economic sanctions and their impacts

Sustainability and Climate Economics

  • Examination of oil, gold, and other commodity price movements
  • Insights into supply-demand dynamics
  • Predictions based on geopolitical and environmental factors

Research and Coverage

Reports

First Word

Delve deep into a holistic market overview with our "First Word" reports. Scrutinize macro indicators, current trends, and sector rotations, and unravel fact-based evidence that points towards prospective market opportunities.

Today is unlikely the 1Q24 market top. Feels more like profit-taking as prices retrace gains of last 4 days. Proper today is "sell off on good news" not a bad CPI report.

VIDEO: Today's 2% selloff is an over-reaction to the hot CPI print.  We also think it is a touch early to call for a top in equity markets for 1Q24 (duration: 5:03).

Thomas Lee - February 13, 2024

⚡️FlashInsights

Dive into real-time market insights with Tom Lee as he navigates through crucial market dynamics and events pivotal to macro strategy. Stay informed, stay ahead.

Tom Lee
Tom Lee, CFA
Head of Research

Jan CPI released today and core CPI was "hot" at +0.39% MoM vs Street expecting +0.30% * we have an ALERT underway * market is down alot * is this an over-reaction? * of course it is... stocks over-react to negative surprise...

Feb 13
11:47 AM
Tom Lee
Tom Lee, CFA
Head of Research

With today’s ~2% gain, the Russell 2000 is positive +1% YTD. A reminder to be patient for longer thematic arcs * small-caps P/B is 44% of S&P 500, same as 1999 * That was launch point for 12 years of gains *...

Feb 12
12:03 PM

Intraday Alerts

When the market takes unexpected turns, our "Intraday Alerts" come to your rescue. These short-form reports clarify significant market-moving events, ensuring you're never caught off-guard and always make informed decisions.

INTRADAY ALERT: Equities over-reacting to "hot" Jan CPI. The 1Q24 top will be when "stocks sell off on good news" -- so today is not likely the top.

Equites are selling off >1% today ($IWM off >3%) after Jan CPI came in "hot" vs consensus with Core CPI +0.39% (vs consensus +0.30%). Is this an over-reaction? Yes. Should investors buy this dip? Yes. We think this is still too early...

Thomas Lee - February 13, 2024

Granny Shots

Explore the market's latent potentials with "Granny Shots". This in-depth report accentuates dominant themes and trends, spotlighting individual stocks set to transcend market expectations.

6

Themes

Over
40

Stocks

  • Super Grannies
  • Sleeping grannies
  • Updated Monthly

Earnings

When earnings season rolls around, we've got you covered. Our comprehensive reports detail earning conditions, earning beats, and stock performance by sector, providing a clear and insightful analysis of the market's response to earnings releases.

S&P 500 2Q22 Daily Earnings Update

* 12 companies are reporting this week. * Of the 480 companies that have reported so far (96% of the S&P 500), overall earnings results are beating estimates by a median of 7%. And 75% of those reporting are beating estimates. *...

Fundstrat Research - August 25, 2022

Weekly Roadmap

End your week with our "Weekly Roadmap", a summary that encapsulates our expert views and closing remarks for the week. This digest is crafted to bring all market happenings and our insights into one coherent context, ensuring you're well-informed and ready for the week ahead.

Markets Troubled by Inflation Data, End Weekly Win Streak

The primary macroeconomic event impacting markets this week was the release of the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading. As we began the week, Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee told us that, anecdotally, based on his conversations...

February 16, 2024
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Fundstrat Research

Media

Macro Minute Video

Visualize macro strategy insights with "Macro Minute". These concise video briefings furnish clients with a snapshot of present market opportunities and prevailing trends, ensuring you're always one step ahead in the investment game.

February 14, 2024

VIDEO: Tom Lee Macro Minute: Today's bounce shows 1Q24 "top" not yet in, look for sell-off on good news

VIDEO: Our favorite sectors remain $IWM $XLI $XLF $XLK $QQQ and Bitcoin $BTC. _MORE IN TODAY'S MACRO MINUTE VIDEO LINKED HERE_. (Duration: 03:42)

Tom Lee
Tom Lee, CFA
Head of Research

Annual Outlook

As we look ahead, our annual outlook serves as a comprehensive guide for our clients, detailing our predictions and strategies for different sectors and indexes in the upcoming year. This outlook is crucial in helping our clients position themselves for future market developments.

D Array
Thu, Dec 7 11:00 AM ET

Tom Lee's 2024 Market Outlook

– 2024 Macro and Strategy Outlook – Key Sectors to Overweight & Potential Risks – EPS Outlook & S&P 500 Year-End Price Target

Tom Lee
Tom Lee

Head of Research

Market Update Webinar

Stay abreast of market trends and have your queries resolved with our Market Update webinars. These sessions are designed to provide clarity on current market conditions and assist clients in strategizing accordingly.

Wed, Feb 21 11:00 AM ET

Tom Lee's “Super Granny” Shots Update - February 2024

Tom Lee
Tom Lee

Head of Research

Tom Lee
Mark L. Newton, CMT

Head of Technical Strategy

Special Webinars

Our special webinars are dedicated to unraveling specific market phenomena such as inflation and other vital macro metrics. These sessions provide in-depth insights, aiding clients in navigating through complex market dynamics.

CEO Interviews

Leverage our extensive network as we sit down with prominent CEOs to gain firsthand insights into the landscape of their respective sectors or sub-industries. These interviews are a goldmine of information, offering unique perspectives that can significantly impact investment strategies.

Expert Interviews

In our commitment to provide multi-faceted insights, we conduct interviews with technical experts and other key industry figures, shedding light on nuanced aspects of the market and bringing diverse perspectives to our clients.

Tue, Jan 9 11:00 AM ET

Technology & AI Outlook with Tom Lee and Dan Ives

Tom Lee
Dan Ives

Managing Director, Equity Research at Wedbush Securities

Tom Lee
Tom Lee

Head of Research

Fund Managers Interviews

We delve into the minds of fund managers, exploring their strategies and approaches in navigating the complexities of the current macroeconomic landscape. These interviews offer a glimpse into the world of fund management, providing valuable takeaways for our clients.

Fri, Dec 8 2:00 PM ET

Fireside Chat with Tom Lee & Anthony Scaramucci

Tom Lee
Tom Lee

Head of Research

Tom Lee
Anthony Scaramucci

Founder & Managing Partner, SkyBridge Capital

Archives

Appearances Media Archives

Our researchers make appearances across a variety of media outlets including podcasts, TV shows, newspapers, and financial magazines. We diligently track and archive these appearances, creating a comprehensive media library that our clients can refer to at their convenience.

An overlooked area of the stock market could soar 60% in 2024 with valuations signaling a big run ahead, Fundstrat says

1 month ago

CNBC Media Archives

We maintain an archive of CNBC appearances by Tom Lee, our Head of Research, highlighting his role as a contributor of note to a premier news platform. Much more than occasional opportunities, these are regular invitations to weigh in on market-moving topics. The habit of seeing Tom on a CNBC screen underscores the degree to which the financial media recognizes his ability to consistently generate market insights – which are also available to our subscribers in greater detail and in multiple formats via our research reports, videos, webinars, and client calls.

Video: Auto insurance is over half of December CPI rise, has nothing to do with Fed: Fundstrat's Tom Lee

1 month ago

Sample Reports

Latest Publications

Today is unlikely the 1Q24 market top. Feels more like profit-taking as prices retrace gains of last 4 days. Proper today is "sell off on good news" not a bad CPI report.

VIDEO: Today's 2% selloff is an over-reaction to the hot CPI print.  We also think it is a touch early to call for a top in equity markets for 1Q24 (duration: 5:03).

February 13, 2024
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Thomas Lee
Head of Research

INTRADAY ALERT: Equities over-reacting to "hot" Jan CPI. The 1Q24 top will be when "stocks sell off on good news" -- so today is not likely the top.

Equites are selling off >1% today ($IWM off >3%) after Jan CPI came in "hot" vs consensus with Core CPI +0.39% (vs consensus +0.30%). Is this an over-reaction? Yes. Should investors buy this dip? Yes. We think this...

February 13, 2024
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Thomas Lee
Head of Research

Equity markets near-term supported by "angry bears" but Jan CPI is important. Multiple factors still support upside though. 49ers win better for markets, FYI.

VIDEO: With S&P 500 at 5,000, we highlight the key drivers around markets and most remain supportive, except for the unknown leanings of the Fed in coming weeks (duration: 5:38).

February 11, 2024
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Thomas Lee
Head of Research

Case for even STRONGER 2024 emerging. Lunar New Year starts 2/10 and 2024 is Year of the Dragon. Since 1871, S&P 500 up 13% median gain = 5,350. Since 1979, Russell 2000 outperforms 88% of time.

VIDEO: Chinese new year starts 2/10 and 2024 is the year of the Dragon.  Since 1871, equities do particularly well during the Dragon years, gaining 12%.  And small-caps outperform 88% of the time (duration: 3:45).

February 8, 2024
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Thomas Lee
Head of Research

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