Equity markets gained on Tuesday March 31, as signs emerged of the end of this Iran War conflict, confirmed by statements from both sides — Trump and Iran. The positive reaction by markets is a reminder of the drastically cautious positioning of markets.

• March was a tough month for equities with S&P 500 down -4.6%. Given the surge in oil and the coming economic ripples, many investors naturally expect further downside for equities. Investors point to the 20% decline in S&P 500 in early 2025 as a recent precedent. As we look ahead to the month of April, our view is that we are closer to a bottom than those with dire forecasts.
• Mark Newton, Head of Technical Strategy, suggest he would like to see one last decline in S&P 500 towards 6,200-6,300 from 6,500-ish currently. Keep in mind that the S&P 500 was 6,300 or so on Friday and Monday. Hence, markets have been near the levels that Mark Newton sees as the low.
• Before one gets too bearish, there are a few things to be mindful of:
  – first, historically, steep declines are followed by V-shaped recoveries
  – at one point in March, the S&P 500 was down more than 8%
  – second, the US economy is probably better equipped to handle $100 oil
  – as many continue to view the US economy as chronically fragile
  – third, President Trump may be seeking a quicker end to this war
  – as indicated by the statements made at the start of this report
• We have stated multiple times that we believe the US is ultimately a net beneficiary of higher oil, even as higher gasoline poses inflation and affordability issues for consumers and businesses. Please see our prior reports and videos to get a fuller discussion on that.
• But we also believe investors are overly concerned about $100 oil. Granted, this is quite a surge in prices and will create an inflation shock, short term. But consider the following:
  – $100 WTI, inflation-adjusted, is lower than the average price of oil over the past 25 years
  – US war spending is stimulating the economy and adding as much as $20-$30 billion to GDP per month, offsetting higher oil
  – Oil would need to average $125 per barrel to offset this GDP impact
  – Equity markets historically bottom within the first 10% of the duration of a war.
• The highest nominal price for oil was seen in July 2008 at $144 per barrel. And today’s $106 is high. But also keep in mind that overall prices (inflation) are up 53% since 2008. Thus, to match the economic burden of 2008 prices of oil, oil today would need to be $220-$240. In fact, on inflation adjusted terms, the current price of oil is lower than most of the last 25 years.
• And the war’s duration is simply unknown. But as the tables and charts below highlight, equity markets have bottomed early in a conflict — looking at the 7 major conflicts since 1900. In fact, both WWI and WWII were mult-year wars, but the stock market bottomed in 8 and 5 months after the conflict started.
• Why is this the case? To me, it is evidence that markets price in adverse risks early and quickly. Thus, markets can find their bottom sooner.
• The current equity-put call ratio (10 dma) is 0.9, which is the same average seen at the April 2025 lows. This gives us a sense that investors have already taken steps and prepared for further downside.
• 5 weeksn into this war, we are seeing sustained relative outperformance. The leaders since the War started are:
  – Energy – no surprise
  – Crpyto – Ethereum and Bitcoin ETH4.27%  BTC2.77%
  – Technology
  – Rate sensitives incliuding Financials
• These line up pretty closely to our sector recommendations currently.
• Next week we have important employment numbers, with the Feb JOLTS report on Tuesday, and the BLS Mar Jobs Report on Good Friday:
  – 3/30 Mon 10:30 AM ET: Mar Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey     -0.2
  – 3/30 Mon 10:30 AM ET: Powell in Moderated Discussion
  – 3/31 Tue 9:00 AM ET: Jan S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA    0.16% vs 0.35%e
  – 3/31 Tue 10:00 AM ET: Mar Conference Board Consumer Confidence    92 vs 88e
  – 3/31 Tue 10:00 AM ET: Feb JOLTS Job Openings    6882k vs 6890ke
  – 4/1 Wed 8:30 AM ET: Feb Retail Sales    0.5%e
  – 4/1 Wed 9:45 AM ET: Mar F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI    52.4e
  – 4/1 Wed 10:00 AM ET: Mar ISM Manufacturing PMI    52.3e
  – 4/2 Thu 8:30 AM ET: Feb Trade Balance    -61be
  – 4/3 Fri: Good Friday (Market Closed)
  – 4/3 Fri 8:30 AM ET: Mar Non-farm Payrolls    65ke
  – 4/3 Fri 9:45 AM ET: Mar F S&P Global Services PMI    51.1e

BOTTOM LINE: AI rotation to “bullet makers” is not end of MAG7

We believe we are 90% to 95% through this decline. Markets are climbing a wall of worry. We continue to view 2026 as an overall tougher year for markets, with a 3 phase market (rally, then large decline, then YE strong). And our positioning remains:

• Energy/Basic Materials -> top pick
• MAG7 & Bitcoin & Ethereum
• Industrials -> “bullet makers”
• Financials: Large-cap and regional banks
• Small-caps

Part I: 44 Large-cap Core Ideas: Updated list is below

Large-Cap Core Stock Ideas are large-cap stocks that appear in multiple of our investment strategies.

• Consider these the stocks our top stock picks and thus, the higher quality ideas.

The Current Large-cap Core List as of 3/23/2026 is as follows:

Communication Services: GOOGL4.95% , META6.69% , NFLX3.43% , SATS4.32%
Consumer Discretionary: AMZN3.38% , TJX2.51% , TSLA4.59%
Consumer Staples: COST-0.02% , MNST1.60% , WMT0.63%
Energy: CVX-1.81% , OKE-2.76% , TPL1.54%
Financials: AXP1.68% , BK3.00% , GS4.75% , HOOD6.48% , JPM3.66% , PNC3.19%
Health Care: AMGN0.82% , MRK1.85%
Industrials: CAT6.15% , DE1.40% , ETN4.12% , GE3.85% , GEV6.93% , NOC1.59% , PWR2.86% , TT3.17% , UNP1.42%
Information Technology: AAPL2.66% , AMD3.52% , ANET5.73% , AVGO5.45% , CDNS2.60% , KLAC6.50% , MSFT2.99% , MSTR2.59% , NVDA5.58% , PLTR6.48%
Materials: APD-0.37% , PKG1.52% , PPG2.95%
Utilities: VST1.89%

Part II: 62 SMID Core Ideas: Updated list is below

SMID Core Ideas are small and mid-cap stocks that appear in multiple of our investment strategies.

• We believe SMID Core List could benefit from the multiple themes and secular tailwinds.

The Current SMID Core List as of 3/23/2026 is as follows:

Communication Services: RDDT8.47% , SATS4.32% , TIGO2.48%
Consumer Discretionary: DPZ1.66% , H2.74% , IBP2.95% , SGI7.42% , SN8.48%
Consumer Staples: BG0.73% , ELF2.12%
Energy: CCJ5.61% , DINO-1.05% , DTM-0.03% , UUUU11.16% , WFRD2.12%
Financials: ALLY3.48% , EWBC2.84% , GLXY6.36% , SOFI4.69% , WAL4.24%
Health Care: EXEL2.24% , HALO4.02% , UHS-1.72% , UTHR0.79%
Industrials: ARRY5.09% , AVAV3.41% , AWI3.17% , BE13.37% , BWXT6.48% , CARR3.59% , CRS6.32% , CW7.76% , DCI2.74% , DY4.34% , ENS4.09% , FIX8.31% , HII2.93% , IESC7.87% , ITT5.25% , KTOS8.04% , MLI2.70% , NXT7.15% , QXO6.64% , RKLB11.62% , STRL6.78% , VMI4.05% , WTS2.29%
Information Technology: FN6.03% , IONQ8.12% , LSCC8.72% , LITE7.52% , MDB4.15% , NBIS12.45% , ON10.89% , PATH2.12% , PSTG3.60% , RIOT4.48% , SANM4.52%
Materials: ALB1.30% , MP5.72% , RGLD6.59%
Utilities: TLN1.98%

Key Incoming Data March:

• 3/2 9:45 AM ET: Feb F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 3/2 10:00 AM ET: Feb ISM Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 3/4 9:45 AM ET: Feb F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
• 3/4 10:00 AM ET: Feb ISM Services PMI Hot
• 3/4 2:00 PM ET: Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
• 3/5 8:30 AM ET: 4Q P Unit Labor Costs Tame
• 3/5 8:30 AM ET: 4Q P Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Tame
• 3/6 8:30 AM ET: Feb Non-farm Payrolls Mixed
• 3/6 8:30 AM ET: Jan Retail Sales Tame
• 3/9 11:00 AM ET: Feb NYFed 1yr Inf Exp Tame
• 3/10 6:00 AM ET: Feb Small Business Optimism Survey Tame
• 3/10 10:00 AM ET: Feb Existing Home Sales Tame
• 3/11 8:30 AM ET: Feb Core CPI MoM Tame
• 3/12 8:30 AM ET: Jan Trade Balance Tame
• 3/13 8:30 AM ET: 4Q S GDP QoQ Mixed
• 3/13 8:30 AM ET: Jan P Durable Goods Orders MoM Tame
• 3/13 8:30 AM ET: Jan Core PCE MoM Tame
• 3/13 10:00 AM ET: Jan JOLTS Job Openings Tame
• 3/13 10:00 AM ET: Mar P U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp Tame
• 3/16 8:30 AM ET: Mar Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
• 3/16 10:00 AM ET: Mar NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
• 3/18 8:30 AM ET: Feb Core PPI MoM Mixed
• 3/18 10:00 AM ET: Jan F Durable Goods Orders MoM Tame
• 3/18 2:00 PM ET: Mar FOMC Decision Mixed
• 3/18 4:00 PM ET: Jan Net TIC Flows Tame
• 3/19 8:30 AM ET: Mar Philly Fed Business Outlook Tame
• 3/19 10:00 AM ET: Jan New Home Sales Tame
• 3/23 8:30 AM ET: Feb Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Tame
• 3/24 8:30 AM ET: 4Q F Unit Labor Costs Tame
• 3/24 8:30 AM ET: 4Q F Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Tame
• 3/24 9:45 AM ET: Mar P S&P Global Services PMI Tame
• 3/24 9:45 AM ET: Mar P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 3/24 10:00 AM ET: Mar Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Tame
• 3/26 11:00 AM ET: Mar Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey Tame
• 3/27 10:00 AM ET: Mar F U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp Tame
• 3/30 10:30 AM ET: Mar Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey Tame
• 3/31 9:00 AM ET: Jan S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA Tame
• 3/31 10:00 AM ET: Feb JOLTS Job Openings Tame
• 3/31 10:00 AM ET: Mar Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame

Key Incoming Data April:

• 4/1 8:30 AM ET: Feb Retail Sales
• 4/1 9:45 AM ET: Mar F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
• 4/1 10:00 AM ET: Mar ISM Manufacturing PMI
• 4/2 8:30 AM ET: Feb Trade Balance
• 4/3 8:30 AM ET: Mar Non-farm Payrolls
• 4/3 9:45 AM ET: Mar F S&P Global Services PMI
• 4/6 10:00 AM ET: Mar ISM Services PMI
• 4/7 8:30 AM ET: Feb P Durable Goods Orders MoM
• 4/7 11:00 AM ET: Mar NYFed 1yr Inf Exp
• 4/8 2:00 PM ET: Mar FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 4/9 8:30 AM ET: 4Q T GDP QoQ
• 4/9 8:30 AM ET: Feb Core PCE MoM
• 4/10 8:30 AM ET: Mar Core CPI MoM
• 4/10 10:00 AM ET: Feb F Durable Goods Orders MoM
• 4/10 10:00 AM ET: Apr P U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp
• 4/13 10:00 AM ET: Mar Existing Home Sales
• 4/14 6:00 AM ET: Mar Small Business Optimism Survey
• 4/14 8:30 AM ET: Mar Core PPI MoM
• 4/15 8:30 AM ET: Apr Empire Manufacturing Survey
• 4/15 10:00 AM ET: Apr NAHB Housing Market Index
• 4/15 2:00 PM ET: Fed Releases Beige Book
• 4/15 4:00 PM ET: Feb Net TIC Flows
• 4/16 8:30 AM ET: Apr Philly Fed Business Outlook
• 4/21 8:30 AM ET: Mar Retail Sales
• 4/23 8:30 AM ET: Mar Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
• 4/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr P S&P Global Services PMI
• 4/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
• 4/23 11:00 AM ET: Apr Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
• 4/24 10:00 AM ET: Apr F U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp
• 4/27 10:30 AM ET: Apr Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey
• 4/28 9:00 AM ET: Feb S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA
• 4/28 10:00 AM ET: Apr Conference Board Consumer Confidence
• 4/28 10:00 AM ET: Apr Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey
• 4/29 8:30 AM ET: Mar P Durable Goods Orders MoM
• 4/29 2:00 PM ET: Apr FOMC Decision
• 4/30 8:30 AM ET: 1Q A GDP QoQ
• 4/30 8:30 AM ET: 1Q ECI QoQ
• 4/30 8:30 AM ET: Mar Core PCE MoM

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2026:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2025:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2024:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2023: