“We don’t appreciate what we have until it’s gone. Freedom is like that. It’s like air. When you have it, you don’t notice it.” ― Boris Yeltsin

Chart of the Day

Good morning!

The president is a nosy guy. 

A complete opposite of his predecessor, he is completely hands-on, so involved at all times that he looks down on those taking summer breaks. 

His unrelenting confidence, emboldened by his recent win on tariffs, has only become amplified. Seven months in, he has threatened the independence of the Federal Reserve, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and even corporate America, starting with Intel. And maybe, just maybe, he’s even turned his sights on the capital. 

This morning, the consumer-price index is the first major report coming out of the troubled agency since the jobs report-driven wrath led to the firing of commissioner Erika McEntarfer. 

Sure, these topics make for sexy headlines and have us so-called Wall Street intellectuals mulling over the long-term ramifications. But the thing is you can keep poring over history books to find previous instances for any semblance of a playbook and discover there’s no one like him. 

He is unabashedly rewriting the rules of involvement, so much so that we’re unlearning the value of independence. And if you need proof, please look to the stock market. On Friday, the Nasdaq Composite hit a record. It was its 18th one this year. What’s more worrying is that worries aren’t even showing up in the bond market. (Helloooo, bond vigilantes, where are you?? Maybe Trump was right about not taking summer vacays??) 

And the only reason why we haven’t noticed it is because we’re too distracted by tech stocks’ recent all-star performance. Palantir’s earnings last week showed that artificial-intelligence momentum isn’t slowing down. Shares rose 21% last week. Apple, thank goodness, is firing up, too, because of a clever trick on Chief Executive Tim Cook’s part, boosting shares up 13%. It’s so clever, in fact, that it makes you wonder why didn’t Cook do this earlier? 

When you have so much innovation and potential for wealth creation happening in your backyard, you tend to forget about the doo-doo in the bushes, which in this instance is the chipping away of independence. 

As the line between policy and realpolitik blurs, I have begun wondering if we’ve been looking at independence the wrong way this whole time, putting it on a pedestal and naming it the most important attribute for American capital markets’ success. I naively thought it was the whole reason why investors prefer Uncle Sam over China, Russia, and many Latin American countries.

Maybe America’s ability to reinvent and constantly evolve will help it precede over these worries, too. 

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Question: Would you eat GMO or CRISPR chocolate?

Answer: Absolutely think what is being done with CRISPR is amazing. CRISPR has been used in Yogurt for decades, and so, we have all had CRISPR if we had yogurt. Separately, Cathie Wood is loading the boat on CRISPR Therapeutics. In the world of technology, as Walter Isaacson rightfully pointed out, the 3 biggest technology impacts on mankind in the last 100 years will be marked by the atom, the bit, and CRISPR.

Catch up with Fundstrat

We think many investors are cautious about August generally, given the poor seasonality and now the concerns of the tariffs impacting CPI. But the breakaway surge in Bitcoin in July, in our view, sets up for equities to make new highs in August.

Technical

I don’t feel Monday was all that negative technically, despite the minor drop in SPX, and it looks likely that SPX should push back to new highs to join QQQ this week.

Crypto

Head of Digital Asset Strategy Sean Farrell is on vacation this week.

News We’re Following

Breaking News

• Inflation Held Steady at 2.7% in July WSJ
• Trump flip-flops on Intel CEO, calls him ‘success’ days after demanding resignation CNBC
• Trump says he’s nominating E.J. Antoni as Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner CNBC

Markets and economy

• With Billions at Risk, Nvidia CEO Buys His Way Out of the Trade Battle WSJ
• Trump Extends China Tariff Truce by Three Months NYT
• Donald Trump says gold imports will not face US tariffs FT
• Americans Are Eating Cheaper. What That Means for the Economy. BR

Business

• Circle shares rise as second-quarter revenue jumps 53% on strong stablecoin growth CNBC
• Spirit Airlines warns it might not be able to survive without more cash CNBC
• Google and IBM believe first workable quantum computer is in sight FT
• Forget the White House Sideshow. Intel Must Decide What It Wants to Be. WSJ

Politics

• For D.C., Threats of a Federal Takeover Were Familiar. Now They Are a Reality. NYT
• The surreal history of Trump and Putin’s private meetings FT
• Trump declared federal control of DC police and is deploying the National Guard. Here’s how he is able to do it CNN

Overseas

• China Creates World’s No. 1 Shipbuilder, Driven by Rivalry With U.S. WSJ

Of Interest 

• Taylor Swift Announces New Album, ‘The Life of a Showgirl’ NYT