Client Portal

Don't look now, but Healthcare has started to show some early signals that it could begin an end of year mean reversion rally. These types of mean reversion trades are common in November into the following February. Thus, while HC trend is negative, it's showing signs that it can snap back. MY technical ranking on Healthcare is neutral but believe this will rally in November and could outperform. I'll discuss more tonight. Notable outperformers today are A-1.04% , ABT1.31%  CAH-0.25% , IDXX-0.02%  Lots of good strength across various sub-sectors. Following severe underperformance, today's broad-based sector strength within Healthcare is a plus, and XLV-0.65%  is breaking out of the minor downtrend of the past month.

Healthcare's drop today is being led by underperformance in RMD, HUM, VTRS, and UNH-7.17% , the latter representing the 2nd largest weighting within XLV-0.65%  at 8.75%, and Healthcare itself is the 2nd largest sector by market capitalization within the SPX at roughly 12.5%. Thus, a -4.5% drop in UNH-7.17%  is normally important and something to keep an eye on given its weighting within Healthcare as well as its influence on SPX. Today's drop is happening on above-average volume and marks a continuation lower following UNH's peak last October within striking distance of former all-time high territory. That area near $560 proved to be strong resistance, and it's not wrong to say that UNH has slowly but surely been suffering some technical weakening in momentum over the last four months, as prices have been sliding lower. The first warning sign happened in January following UNH-7.17% 's break of uptrend line support near $525, and its rebound attempt failed to make any upside headway to rectify this negative development, bouncing to test the area of the uptrend line before rolling over this past week. At current levels, a test of $479 from late January looks probable, and this represents the first meaningful area of downside support. Any break of that level would have near-term bearish consequences, technically speaking and would be thought to potentially lead UNH down to test the more meaningful area of 2-year consolidation support near $445. At present, the weakening in the stock in recent months has resulted in shares plunging back into this larger multi-year consolidation after a failed push to new high territory. While this larger two-year consolidation does remain within a larger long-term bullish uptrend, it has necessitated a more neutral view on the stock in the short run, and today's downside volume on the selling makes buying dips likely something that will require patience. Overall, additional sideways churning and/or minor downside selling pressure look more likely rather than an immediate snapback technically. To have a very bullish opinion on UNH technically it will be required that UNH recoup its selling and rise back above $540 which seems like a "tall order" in the weeks/months to come. However, that will be the technical sign that intermediate-term gains can happen. Until then, it's wise to keep UNH at a smaller percentage holding as opposed to an overweight, until this can begin to stabilize and turn back higher. Bottom line, the technical view is not bearish on UNH, but rather one that will require patience, as UNH has entered the so-called "Sleeper" state for the time being.

Healthcare is set to make the highest monthly close (XLV-0.65% ) EVER based on the Sector SPDR ETF, with a close today 1/31 over 140.89 (currently 141.13 as of mid-day (XLV is large cap biased and LLY, UNH, JNJ make up 25% alone) Note how strong this has been despite the recent weakness in UNH in recent weeks. I like healthcare to show some above avg strength between now and the end of July and i am raising my technical weighting on Healthcare tactically to Overweight (OW) for probably around a 6 month basis. My Technical report tonight will discuss reasoning for this change