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While most are concentrating on the huge push back to AI and Mag 7, there has been some notable underperformance in DJIA, Equal-weighted SPX and also IWM vs. NDX today, and one can see IWM is right up against Ichimoku Cloud resistance, not dissimilar from RSP and DJIA. SPX to its credit is challenging all-time highs, but would be beneficial to see some broader-based rally and for today, Equal-weighed RSP0.39%  is down on the day. IWM0.32% , shown below, should face resistance, pull back over the next week and then turn back higher towards late Nov highs

The inability to mount any kind of meaningful intra-day reversal points to a bit more weakness into early next week ahead of Wednesday's CPI. That could be a pivotal event, if SPX reaches 5700 and might coincide with a reversal. For now, we see that the breakdown in Equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP0.39% ) on Financials and Healthcare weakness still makes it difficult to expect an immediate snapback as price has undercut the lows going back since December and has reached the lowest levels since last September. This might lead to another couple days of weakness into next week, and both trends and momentum remain bearish in the short run, as part of bullish intermediate-term patterns.

Is it right to buy Energy for a bounce? Equal-weighted Energy has trended up sharply over the last couple weeks, but these gains remain part of a lengthy downtrend in the relative picture of Energy to SPX since October 2023. While investors heard reports of possible China-led supply shock events like banning US-sanctioned Tankers from Shandong Port, the entry for most sanctioned Oil which might drive up shipping costs (1.74 million barrels per day from Iran, Russia, and Venezuela in the last year) However, Crude failed to lift in trading and closed down negative. Overall, my feeling is that Energy likely does outperform in Q1 before heading lower, but at current levels, it's likely that Crude, and by extension, Energy might require a "breather" before being able to push higher. This downtrend shown below is a daily chart of Equal-weighted Energy (RSPG0.53% ) in ratio form to the Equal-weighted SPX (RSP0.39% )

Happy New Year All! As the first full trading day of 2025 gets underway, US Equities are attempting a rather lackluster bounce, but SPX will require much more strength this week to have some conviction that the decline is complete as the intermediate-term uptrend was broken for Equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP0.39% ) and both daily and weekly MACD are now negative (indicating that near-term momentum has joined trends in turning more negative in recent weeks) Overall, while i expect that this consolidation should be complete by mid-January, it's hard to claim technically just yet that lows are in place. This weekly RSP chart shows the recent breakdown, and reclaiming this uptrend on better than average sector participation looks important. Patience required, and "no need to be the hero" in buying dips just yet technically, as SPX very well could move to 5650-5700 before bottoming.

Today's mild gains are nearly exclusively being driven by Large-Cap Technology gains which along with some of the Cruise-liner and Casino names within Discretionary are resulting in positive NASDAQ 100 gains of +1.25% and SPX gains of +0.28% while the Equal-weighted SPX (RSP0.39% ) is down -0.30% on 1% or greater losses in Financials, Utilities, Energy, and REITS.. 9 of 11 sectors are down today and market breadth is -3/2 negative. Yet a Semiconductor bounce along with SMCI-1.51%  rebound has been healthy for Tech today. SPX daily chart enclosed shows SPX up near the upper edge of its channel resistance, but DeMark-based exhaustion counts look early by roughly 2 days (Both for SPX and also QQQ) Thus, no evidence of any selling pressure as December trading gets kicked off, but I expect markets will show consolidation between 12/5-December expiration before the Santa rally kicks in. Overall, i anticipate maximum gains to 6100 SPX while downside probably does prove muted in December given AAPL's breakout last week and 5950 could hold.

QQQ currently up +0.40%, and has not yet moved to new highs like what's happening with Equal-weighted RSP0.39% . DJIA is lower today while IWM also down -0.41%, so while SPX is set to make new all-time highs on a daily close today potentially, other parts of the market aren't doing as well today. Thus, important to keep abreast of what's moving and what's not, as Materials, Discretionary and Healthcare are all down more than -0.60% and 10 of 11 sectors are lower. However, no evidence of deterioration thus far out of SPX, nor QQQ, both which are making mild progress this week.

Equal-weighted S&P 500 has now outperformed SPX for the last 2 weeks, but now looks to be at an interesting crossroads of resistance which might prove important heading into next week See the relative chart of RSP0.39%  to SPY0.45%  below

Equal-weighted SPX is set to make new all-time highs on a weekly close this week, but lies right near important former peaks which are likely to prove to be resistance into next week. RSP0.39%  key levels lie at 185.79 and above would lead to fractional gains to 188 which should be very strong resistance.

Stock indices remain fractionally positive when eyeing both ^SPX0.45%  and QQQ0.10% , while RSP0.39% , the Equal-weighted ^SPX0.45%  is negative today, with eight sectors lower out of 11. Technology's gains have disguised some of the weakness in the broader market, but market breadth measures remain about 3/2 negative today. The initial area of importance into tomorrow will be the swing low near 5804 for SPX, and under invites a challenge of 5765. Transports and Small caps have both underperformed today after yesterday's strength and US Dollar and yields are both higher after today's 25 bp cut by ECB.

Heading into mid-day, we see a very defensive rally in markets, and real broad-based strength as RSP0.39%  is up +0.75% and 10 of 11 sectors are higher on the day, with Utilities, Energy, Discretionary, Staples and Healthcare all up more than 1%. yet, SPX is flat, and QQQ is lower by -0.45% as XLK is down nearly -0.90% which makes it seem like a "down day" but this is largely only large-cap Technology- Equal-weighted Tech is actually lower by nearly half that amount, or -0.53%. But Today is largely about Defensive strength and Tech weakness while the broader market is rallying in stealth mode