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Mark L. Newton, CMT AC
Head of Technical Strategy
Fri, November 22, 2024 | 2:34PM ET
While the bounce into next week remains intact at this point, SPX and QQQ have shown decisive lagging regarding to the Equal-weighted SPX. When eyeing the top 5 stocks in SPX by market cap- NVDA at 3.48T down to GOOGL at 2.03T, each is down at least 3% off all-time highs and in some cases, GOOGL is down 13% from all-time highs. One can see clearly that some interesting sector rotation is happening. Yet, charts of the Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS-1.73% ) show this to be in very good shape, thanks to TSLA which went from laggard to leader recently within the Magnificent 7. Thus, the breadth deterioration having been discussed regarding the US Stock market certainly is not limited to lagging sectors like Staples and Healthcare, but also affecting US Tech "former leaders" like MSFT-1.45% , GOOGL-0.82% , down 11 and 13% respectively from All-time highs("ATH"), NVDA now down 4% from ATH, AMZN-2.00% down 8% from ATH, and even META is lower by 6%. Important as the top stock by market cap that NVDA not undercut 137, as this would have the power to cause a correction in SPX and QQQ. Chart of MAGS is shown below
Mark L. Newton, CMT AC
Head of Technical Strategy
Tue, October 8, 2024 | 11:57AM ET
Time to refresh comments on IGV-2.14% , the Ishares expanded Tech-Software ETF, as this is now exceeding 90, and officially breaking out above two prior peaks from this year along with Nov 2021 in a very bullish Cup and Handle pattern back to new all-time high territory. While Semis still are outperforming Software on an intermediate-term basis, Software has shown better relative strength since this Summer. Note, this Software outperformance is not the normal MSFT-1.45% led rally. Rather, it's being led by PLTR-2.57% , ORCL-4.78% , NOW-2.16% , and strong movement out of the likes of CRM-2.56% , PANW-0.47% which i suspect should rally back to all-time highs. (More on this topic in tonight's report)
Mark L. Newton, CMT AC
Head of Technical Strategy
Wed, April 24, 2024 | 2:35PM ET
90 min to go in Wednesday's session, we've seen early losses be recouped to some extent, with SPX now just fractionally negative (-0.02%) while QQQ-1.83% is still up a minor amount on gains by TSLA-0.91% TXN-1.25% ON-6.77% , TTD-2.44% and some outsized strength out of many Semiconductor names (SOX higher by +0.85%) However, today's sector performance definitely is a bit defensive in nature, with Utilities, REITS leading the charge while Industrials are being hard hit on losses from ODFL-2.18% which is hurting the DJ Transportation Avg. Overall, i don't sense that the minor consolidation after yesterday's bounce has been fulfilled. This structure seems to indicate that another minor pullback might unfold into tomorrow before a large rally takes place into early to mid-May, likely on the heels of good earnings out of MSFT-1.45% and/or GOOGL-0.82% tomorrow. At present, support for ^SPX-1.59% weakness lies near 5037 then 5021 while any move back OVER 5089.48 would allow for this rally to continue without much more decline. Bottom line, the gains of the last two days gave some pretty hard proof that lows for the larger decline from March are in place. I expect "maybe' another 30-40 point S&P pullback before a rally up to 5200 and ultimately 5400 gets underway which should start this week, continuing on early week progress
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Last updated: 2025-01-10 12:30:02