Client Portal

An hourly chart "close-up" highlighting this pullback over the last couple days and how this fits in with the current structure. As can be seen, SPX accelerated a bit lower following its break of yesterday's lows, and to be equivalent to this first move down, would ideally bottom at/near 6054 which also lines up with this uptrend from Mid-January. No saying this has to be a an exact level, but various things line up to show that this pullback is getting close to support. Under 6000 and "all bets are off" as that would lead lower to test 2/3 lows near 5924 which i don't expect. It's always practical to utilize charts like this to understand one's own risk/reward when trying to "buy the dip"

AXON-5.37%  selloff has proven extreme this week, but keep in mind that the stock remains at double the levels it was trading last August and still above a 50% retracement of those prior August lows. It is in midst of its wave C of ABC type corrective decline which started last December. Gap downs particularly are associated with Wave 3 within a certain move but is growing closer to a low, in my view. I don't sense that AXON breaks 500.. so overall, this big pullback initially will be right to expect to stabilize and bounce. If/when it does not get back to highs, it will be right to evaluate this. But the bigger picture takeaway is that the larger structure still hasn't grown too negative which is all based on its volatility higher which now has led to its first real correction down. I don't mind sticking with AXON and will monitor in the next couple months on rallies, and specifically, if this can't rally back.

LME Aluminum shaping up nicely and on the verge of a big breakout, which happened this week already with Iron Ore, as Tariffs on both Steel and Aluminum imports are being readied for 3/12/25. Thus far the stocks of CENX-13.52%  AA-7.65%  have not really responded to this bullish basing pattern having been seen in Aluminum, but i suspect a breakout should happen in the next couple weeks leading up to this possible Tariff resumption. Investors should keep a close eye on Aluminum and also Steel and Iron ore related stocks, as i expect breakouts in the metals should ultimately also lead these stocks to begin rallying at a time when long interest rates and US Dollar are falling.

One key reason to be positive on buying dips in Equities has to do with the correlation to Treasuries and seeing what's happening with Yields right now. 10-Year Treasury yields have only made a minor period of consolidation/bounce and are now headed back lower. Yields have declined sharply down to right above 2/14/25 lows at 4.447% and this is a crucial spot technically which i feel could be violated next week. Movement below 4.44% is more important structurally than 4.40% and will lead to a decline in yields down to 4.12. Thus, Equities are expected to enjoy a nice rally as this Treasury rally is ongoing, as i do not expect this correlation which has lasted nearly for three years.. to break down too substantially at this point. Overall, keep a close eye on both DXY and also TNX and under 4.44%, i suspect Equities should start to turn back higher back to new all-time highs. NVDA-3.67%  next week very well could be a positive catalyst for Technology, as NVDA has shown precious little deterioration in recent days despite SPX and NASDAQ having pulled back. See this TNX chart and the technical structure which is being tested below.

The consolidation from all-time highs continues for ^SPX-1.67% , and growing increasingly closer to support which should help lead Equity indices to stabilize and turn back higher. As seen on this daily chart, the trend from January 13th lows has already had two successful tests of its upsloping trendline and this is setting up to be the third- While one can't say intra-day that markets should bottom today, i am not expecting that this uptrend is broken at a time when Interest rates on the long end and US Dollar have been imploding this week and Cryptocurrencies are showing some minor strength. Overall i expect SPX should find some support near 6040-6080 and should have "no business" being below 6000 which would change the structure. Similar to what Tom Lee has been saying, i believe firmly in buying the dip on this minor decline.

For 7 of the last 9 sessions, investors bought the dip during an intraday decline

• today’s decline on heels of WMT-2.46%  disappointment doesn’t change the positive outlook for stocks

Thus, we would be buying the dip QQQ-2.05%  SPY-1.67%  IWM-2.93%  GRNY-3.09%

WMT-2.46%  also was hit hard today, but executives said they continue to see the Consumer as being resilient, and that tariffs are something they can manage. WMT-2.46%  likely has strong support near $95 on weakness and i do not see this leading to a larger peak in the stock. Similar to PLTR, this should present opportunity into next week just below current levels.

PLTR-4.07%  joins the growing list of high-flyers which have been hit hard this week, and as seen in this daily chart, PLTR reached its trendline from early this year and has bounced intra-day to hold February lows at $99.32 thus far. I don't make much of this decline in PLTR despite the extreme nature of the short-term volatility on higher volume, and expect to see some stabilization into early next week at/above $95.

Yen showing some abnormal strength today, as seen on USDJPY having violated early February lows which is taking Dollar/Yen to the lowest levels since December 2024. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Ueda met with the Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba today, and said they didn't discuss rising yields. This was seen by traders as a "green light" to raise rates again, if the direction of JGB's is not seen as a problem. I expect that the Yen very well could reach prior peaks seen last September near 139 to the Dollar, or as seen here, as a low in USD/JPY on a further selloff.

US Equity markets have begun the "backing and filling" process discussed in recent days which appears likely to take SPX down to 6040-50. I don't expect last Wed 6003 lows to be violated in SPX, and this remains a short-term pullback only which should reach support by next week. As daily charts show, SPX's recent breakout has proven short-lived for now, as no other indices outside of NASDAQ 100 index participated. I don't see this move as being too negative for the structure, but likely to prove short-lived and limited in scope.