- Spot VIX surging today 21% to 19
- But 1-month VIX is 15.6 and down for the day
- Also bond volatility is down β MOVE and 20-yr bond
New
β‘ FlashInsights is available
Wed, December 18, 2024 | 3:19PM ET
Volatility diverging is also a "tell" that market are over-reacting
Wed, December 18, 2024 | 3:13PM ET
Stocks selling due to FOMC rate decision and specifically:
- fewer expected cuts in 2025 2 vs market expecting 3
- Powell notes some FOMC members incorporated Trump policy risk to forecast
- Thus, risk of tariffs or deportations.
- These are "risks" and thus they argue for fewer cuts
Wed, November 27, 2024 | 11:02AM ET
Bitcoin BTC is rising today and back to $93k.
- fell from $99k to $91k
- found support near 20 day moving avg $90k
Wed, November 20, 2024 | 5:29PM ET
In our view, Thanksgiving rally Intact
- NVDA3.88% earnings reported
- Whether market happy or sad
- Itβs behind us
- Meaning itβs a "clearing event"
Wed, November 20, 2024 | 3:07PM ET
NVDA3.88% reports after the close today
- markets are nervous
- That is a good sign
- AI spending visibility strong
Tue, November 19, 2024 | 10:13AM ET
Wed, November 6, 2024 | 9:36AM ET
O ur playbook for Trump win consistently been:
- small caps IWM-0.55%
- financials and industrials KRE-1.16% XLF-0.58% XLI-0.01%
- bitcoin BTC SMLR-1.24% MSTR-4.04%
Thu, October 10, 2024 | 11:12AM ET
Regarding Presidential election, we watch both Nate Silver as the gold standard. But we also follow the betting markets - all the betting markets show Trump ahead - this shift took place only in the past week
Thu, October 3, 2024 | 7:00PM ET
The Dockworkers agreed to suspend their strike until 1/15. The rationale is ostensibly to allow more room for negotiations (but who really knows)
- this is a short term positive because it removes a "headline risk" and a potentially damaging economic strike
- we expect the VIX to decline
- and therefore incrementally supportive of stocks
Tue, October 1, 2024 | 2:25PM ET
The attack on Israel is triggering "risk off" today. Israel has stated in the past that future retaliation would include economic targets. Thus, post this strike, investors worry that Israel will retailate by attacking Iran's oil infrastructure. And Iran is a major supplier of oil to China.
- this is generally seen as (or similar) why markets seem to be wary
- we know that war often leads to markets falling, but these end up being a "buy the dip" moment
- so i would not be panicking here
