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Nvidia

Mark L. Newton, CMT AC
Head of Technical Strategy
Mon, February 10, 2025 | 3:50PM ET
NVDA has managed to extend gains for the fifth straight day, and has exceeded not only 1/28 former highs but also two prior lows from 12/17 and 1/13. This is a bullish development for the stock, but 60-min, 120-minute and 240-minute DeMark tools could all come together as of tomorrow to show the first exhaustion signals on this bounce. Overall, while the move itself has been constructive to structure, it doesn't appear like an immediate move back to new highs can get underway just yet. I have $137-$142 as being very important to NVDA2.89% as resistance. Furthermore, intra-day DeMark signals might all line up by late tomorrow to show some exhaustion. Ideally, investors should hold this stock and expect that minor weakness over the next week should make this quite attractive to buy dips.

Mark L. Newton, CMT AC
Head of Technical Strategy
Fri, January 31, 2025 | 3:50PM ET
Movement in AAPL1.35% NVDA2.89% , AMD1.21% are not constructive within Technology and today's reversal likely points to some backing and filling next week in SPX, QQQ as well as the Semiconductor index SOX. Breadth has turned nearly 3/1 negative, but i feel the market is misinterpreting the Tariff message, which itself has been mixed in recent days and not totally clear whether there will be carveouts or exceptions. Dollar also has been whipsawed today and it's right always to wait for the action vs. paying too much attention to the Message beforehand, if history is any guide. My target on NVDA in the short run is 110-112 and that should be an attractive area to consider buying dips. However, the last few days of rally attempt look to be failing and today is well off earlier highs and set to close near the lows of the session. AAPL also failed at resistance and is now down on the day near resistance. Overall, this is short-term consolidation only, not indicative of a breakdown in Technology. However, pullbacks in the Magnificent 7 over the next week make this group attractive, and i do not expect "Mag 7" to turn into the "Lag 7" for very long. NVDA2.89% wave structure shown below. Have a nice weekend

Mark L. Newton, CMT AC
Head of Technical Strategy
Mon, January 13, 2025 | 11:06AM ET
Both NVDA and AAPL are close to support, and this is also an important reason why SPX should be close to support at a time when many feel the SPX has just started to show evidence of trend damage. NVDA has gotten down to within striking distance of December lows & it's important to note that $126-$127 area also lines up with intermediate-term uptrend lines for NVDA. I'm not expecting that today is a technical low, so there stands a chance of weakening into tomorrow, but feel that the stock is growing very favorable as a risk/reward and should rebound to at least 140-143 into mid-February after potentially reaching 126.50-128.50 into tomorrow. The lack of a strong rally into mid-February would raise the odds of possible additional selling pressure into March, but for now, most of this damage seems done, technically and NVDA2.89% is nearing support

Mark L. Newton, CMT AC
Head of Technical Strategy
Mon, December 9, 2024 | 11:13AM ET
Today's early weakness is reaching multi-day lows for the first time since early November though market breadth today is positive by 3/2 as seven sectors are positive out of 11, with Materials and Healthcare up more than 1%. The decline in big-cap Tech however is what many investors are concentrating on and FI-0.07% AMD1.21% PANW4.87% NVDA2.89% PLTR1.54% are all down more than -2.75%. An end of day finish at multi-day lows, particularly if breadth gets worse would make the case for a mild selloff which might last into FOMC but one which should provide buying opportunities. Oddly enough, today's positive breadth on negative SPX price action is nearly the opposite of what happened all last week when prices rose while breadth was negative. Initial support levels for ^SPX-0.01% lie near 6042, then 6017

Mark L. Newton, CMT AC
Head of Technical Strategy
Tue, November 26, 2024 | 12:45PM ET
NVDA2.89% pulled back yesterday under 137 and is having a dampening effect on QQQ0.55% which has diverged a bit from all-time highs. Yesterday's break likely does lead NVDA down to 132 or even a bit lower to 128 before this stabilizes. NVDA is the largest stock within SPX by market cap and while Technology has rebounded this past week, Equal-weighted Tech has done far better than Large-cap Tech and "Magnificent 7" by nearly 300 bps this past week in performance. The key takeaway here is that Cyclicals are outperforming while big-Cap Tech has lagged lately

Thomas Lee, CFA AC
Head of Research
Wed, November 20, 2024 | 5:29PM ET

Thomas Lee, CFA AC
Head of Research
Wed, November 20, 2024 | 3:07PM ET
NVDA2.89% reports after the close today
- markets are nervous
- That is a good sign
- AI spending visibility strong

Mark L. Newton, CMT AC
Head of Technical Strategy
Wed, November 20, 2024 | 10:10AM ET
NVDA followup- NVDA2.89% implied move post earnings is 7% based on its options pricing. Current implied volatility is around a 54, or mid-range and got to 87 back in August and was 39 back in May. SpotGamma notes that 1-month Skew is quite flat, indicating that traders do not have the same exuberant expectations vs. the ultra bullish February 2024 stance. This is interesting given the high expectations from the Street and the nosebleed whisper numbers. At present, minor losses to start the day, and key levels post close into tomorrow will be initially 149.77 or intra-day early November highs, vs. 137 which was Monday's intra-day lows. I've drawn a support trendline to show the most attractive area of downside support lining up with August 2024 prior highs, an area near early and late October lows, and this also lines up near the Ichimoku cloud. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the entire runup from September lies at approximately 131, so this area is also important.. For investors who want more information, kindly refer to last night's Technical missive, 11/19/24.

Mark L. Newton, CMT AC
Head of Technical Strategy
Tue, October 22, 2024 | 10:58AM ET
NVDA2.89% breakout is certainly an intermediate-term bullish development, but could easily show some consolidation into late November before a further runup to 180-190 into next Spring/Summer. Technically, I expect upside to be limited to 147-155 in the short run, and it could consolidate LOWER over the next month into and past the US Election and provide better buying opportunities for investors in about 4-6 weeks. Key level of support is 131, lining up with the peak from late August. I expect a TRADING RANGE for NVDA between now and December between 131 and 155 and while the stock has been rising sharply lately, this likely will stallout by the end of October and begin to weaken, technically speaking, to alleviate some of its overbought conditions.

Mark L. Newton, CMT AC
Head of Technical Strategy
Mon, October 7, 2024 | 11:32AM ET
Fractional decline to kick off the new week in US Equities, but Technology's relative strength is helping this market hold up a bit better than it would without its influence. Financials and Utilities are down 1%, and 10 of 11 sectors are lower, with just Energy up today. TNX is back over 4%, and China's FXI has gapped up again and now trading over $36. This pattern in SPX is not too negative and represents just some minor backing and filling which then should begin to turn higher back to new highs. Key for ^SPX-0.01% will be 5753 while for S&P Futures that level lies at 5808. Both are important technical catalysts, and expect that Tech should lead on this rally over next couple weeks given the strength in key Tech names like NVDA2.89% and AAPL1.35% . S&P should not undercut 5677 in my view, and should be starting to stabilize today after early weakness.
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Last updated: 2025-02-17 16:30:01