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Both NVDA and AAPL are close to support, and this is also an important reason why SPX should be close to support at a time when many feel the SPX has just started to show evidence of trend damage. NVDA has gotten down to within striking distance of December lows & it's important to note that $126-$127 area also lines up with intermediate-term uptrend lines for NVDA. I'm not expecting that today is a technical low, so there stands a chance of weakening into tomorrow, but feel that the stock is growing very favorable as a risk/reward and should rebound to at least 140-143 into mid-February after potentially reaching 126.50-128.50 into tomorrow. The lack of a strong rally into mid-February would raise the odds of possible additional selling pressure into March, but for now, most of this damage seems done, technically and NVDA3.63%  is nearing support

Today's early weakness is reaching multi-day lows for the first time since early November though market breadth today is positive by 3/2 as seven sectors are positive out of 11, with Materials and Healthcare up more than 1%. The decline in big-cap Tech however is what many investors are concentrating on and FI-0.24%  AMD1.42%  PANW1.45%  NVDA3.63%  PLTR3.71%  are all down more than -2.75%. An end of day finish at multi-day lows, particularly if breadth gets worse would make the case for a mild selloff which might last into FOMC but one which should provide buying opportunities. Oddly enough, today's positive breadth on negative SPX price action is nearly the opposite of what happened all last week when prices rose while breadth was negative. Initial support levels for ^SPX0.59%  lie near 6042, then 6017

NVDA3.63%  pulled back yesterday under 137 and is having a dampening effect on QQQ1.38%  which has diverged a bit from all-time highs. Yesterday's break likely does lead NVDA down to 132 or even a bit lower to 128 before this stabilizes. NVDA is the largest stock within SPX by market cap and while Technology has rebounded this past week, Equal-weighted Tech has done far better than Large-cap Tech and "Magnificent 7" by nearly 300 bps this past week in performance. The key takeaway here is that Cyclicals are outperforming while big-Cap Tech has lagged lately

In our view, Thanksgiving rally Intact

• NVDA3.63%  earnings reported
• Whether market happy or sad
• It’s behind us
• Meaning it’s a "clearing event"

Please BUY THE DIP (if there is one) IWM-0.59%  QQQ1.38%  SMLR-1.24%  MSTR-3.01%  KRE-1.47%

NVDA3.63%  reports after the close today

• markets are nervous
• That is a good sign
• AI spending visibility strong

So be ready to BUY THE DIP!!!

NVDA followup- NVDA3.63%  implied move post earnings is 7% based on its options pricing. Current implied volatility is around a 54, or mid-range and got to 87 back in August and was 39 back in May. SpotGamma notes that 1-month Skew is quite flat, indicating that traders do not have the same exuberant expectations vs. the ultra bullish February 2024 stance. This is interesting given the high expectations from the Street and the nosebleed whisper numbers. At present, minor losses to start the day, and key levels post close into tomorrow will be initially 149.77 or intra-day early November highs, vs. 137 which was Monday's intra-day lows. I've drawn a support trendline to show the most attractive area of downside support lining up with August 2024 prior highs, an area near early and late October lows, and this also lines up near the Ichimoku cloud. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the entire runup from September lies at approximately 131, so this area is also important.. For investors who want more information, kindly refer to last night's Technical missive, 11/19/24.

NVDA3.63%  breakout is certainly an intermediate-term bullish development, but could easily show some consolidation into late November before a further runup to 180-190 into next Spring/Summer. Technically, I expect upside to be limited to 147-155 in the short run, and it could consolidate LOWER over the next month into and past the US Election and provide better buying opportunities for investors in about 4-6 weeks. Key level of support is 131, lining up with the peak from late August. I expect a TRADING RANGE for NVDA between now and December between 131 and 155 and while the stock has been rising sharply lately, this likely will stallout by the end of October and begin to weaken, technically speaking, to alleviate some of its overbought conditions.

Fractional decline to kick off the new week in US Equities, but Technology's relative strength is helping this market hold up a bit better than it would without its influence. Financials and Utilities are down 1%, and 10 of 11 sectors are lower, with just Energy up today. TNX is back over 4%, and China's FXI has gapped up again and now trading over $36. This pattern in SPX is not too negative and represents just some minor backing and filling which then should begin to turn higher back to new highs. Key for ^SPX0.59%  will be 5753 while for S&P Futures that level lies at 5808. Both are important technical catalysts, and expect that Tech should lead on this rally over next couple weeks given the strength in key Tech names like NVDA3.63%  and AAPL0.13% . S&P should not undercut 5677 in my view, and should be starting to stabilize today after early weakness.

NVDA3.63%  making an important bullish breakout today, getting back above 126.50, & is actually surpassing Sept peaks at 127.67. This is a very bullish move on a lackluster Monday where QQQ and SPX are lower. Any daily close above 126.50 should lead back to 140 initially near the peaks from late June. Very encouraging technical move today.

NVDA3.63%  pattern is not unlike AAPL0.13%  and at a combined 10% of SPX, is at least part of the reason for a bit of slowdown in the Tech trade lately. (Both AAPL and NVDA have traded in range-bound symmetrical triangles since July) As seen, this triangle pattern requires a move over 126.50 for a breakout (and this is the likely outcome) and today's rally to multi-day highs has provided a bit of a short-term spark for Technology (While Equal-weighted Tech is just fractionally positive, XLK is up +0.55%, due largely to NVDA, PLTR3.71% , AMD1.42% , CRWD2.05% , and MU-0.09%  outperformance, all of which are higher by more than 2%. NVDA looks appealing here ahead of its breakout, and movement above 126.50 should result in acceleration that leads this back to new highs, technically.