Client Portal

NVDA-2.90%  pattern is not unlike AAPL-2.22%  and at a combined 10% of SPX, is at least part of the reason for a bit of slowdown in the Tech trade lately. (Both AAPL and NVDA have traded in range-bound symmetrical triangles since July) As seen, this triangle pattern requires a move over 126.50 for a breakout (and this is the likely outcome) and today's rally to multi-day highs has provided a bit of a short-term spark for Technology (While Equal-weighted Tech is just fractionally positive, XLK is up +0.55%, due largely to NVDA, PLTR-1.49% , AMD-4.77% , CRWD-2.75% , and MU0.17%  outperformance, all of which are higher by more than 2%. NVDA looks appealing here ahead of its breakout, and movement above 126.50 should result in acceleration that leads this back to new highs, technically.

^SPX-1.54%  looks to be kicking off its push back to new highs with about 10 more trading hours left in the month of August. As you can see, the short-term hourly trend connecting former minor peaks since this past Monday has been exceeded. this should drive price up to 5682, then 5700. Breadth is a bit better than 2/1 bullish and volume also 2/1 positive. 9 of 11 sectors are positive and the only down sectors are defensive- REITS and Staples. While Energy, Industrials, Discretionary, Healthcare and Tech are all up more than +0.75%. Despite NVDA being down fractionally (At 6% of SPX), SPX is still managing to push higher by +0.68%, led by BBY-1.09%  COO-1.71%  CRWD-2.75%  WST-1.54%  HPQ-0.75%  GEV0.10%  PANW0.34%  QRVO-1.90%  and INTC-3.67%  all higher by more than 4% today

2 hours into trading, we see S&P has just surpassed yesterday's intra-day peak (ES-1.92% _F- 5616) by S&P Futures which has helped this rally to accelerate. Breadth is just mildly positive, and Financials and REITS are the only two sectors higher today on an Equal-weighed basis, Technology is largely flat, but XLK is up +0.28%, powered higher by a near-4% bounce out of CRWD-2.75% , along with AVGO-2.23% , FSLR-0.99% , NOW-2.34% , and PANW0.34% , all which are higher by more than 2%. Software stocks are leading Semis today, and NXPI-1.42% , ON-6.69% , and TXN-0.79%  are all lower by more than 3%, and SOX is lower by -0.85% at a time when XLK is outperforming. Transports are lower by 1%, but Small caps are showing stellar strength, up by 1% (IWM-2.21% ) as the SummerOfSmallCaps has arrived. Both US Dollar and Treasury yields are pulling back from earlier bounce attempts, TNX still down -0.02bps - Target initially for S&P Futures lies near 5721

Good news potentially for those eyeing Crowdstrike CRWD-2.75%  as the stock looks to be close to bottoming in the short run and should bounce into August. CRWD had rapidly given up nearly 50% of the entire rally from early 2023 in about two weeks' time. However, despite a break of April lows, this now shows multiple signs of DeMark exhaustion which can allow for a bounce to begin sometime this week. Momentum has gotten oversold and it's unlikely that this breaks its 50% retracement area which lies near 245 before turning higher to at least $336. Moreover, the presence of hourly, 240 min and daily TD Buy Setups indicates that this might be closer to bottoming between Monday and Wednesday and might not require much further selling pressure. Overall while it's always tricky to attempt to own a stock after high volume declines like CRWD has shown in recent weeks, there are some indications that this might bottom and turn up, i view this increasingly as a good risk/reward at these levels for a meaningful bounce, technically speaking.