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^SPX-1.35%  growing near short-term targets, higher by +0.70% on this holiday shortened session while QQQ-1.58%  up around 1%. Market breadth is around 2/1 positive, with Tech, Energy, Discretionary all up more than +0.50% and REITS are the only down sector of the major 11 Equal-weighted S&P 500 ETF's today. Equal-weighted SPX is up around +0.36%, roughly half of SPX gains and both TNX and DXY are marginally positive. SPX is thought to face strong resistance near 6035, only 16 points higher as bounce looks to have unfolded (currently) as a three-wave counter-trend bounce to the five-wave decline which ended last Friday morning. While it was thought that a bounce could happen from last Friday's lows, the real test will happen between now and end of year as the near-term technical structure is not as ideal as what many might think given the rapid snapback. Important areas of support are found at SPX 5902, while 516 is important for QQQ. Any breach of these levels would result in a minor move back to new lows for December, which should mark an attractive entry point for a 1st Half rally in 2025. To have confidence of a continued push to new highs, than SPX will require a move back above 6055 while QQQ requires a move over 535. However, short-term resistance for QQQ lies at 530.9, roughly two points higher.

Fractional weakness in US Equities today which is nearly all been driven by Technology, which is down -1.9%. Five sectors are lower today while six are higher but no sector is down more than -0.20% today except for Technology. Meanwhile, REITS, Utilities and Healthcare are showing the best gains. For QQQ-1.58% , this failed in its initial attempts to join the SPX back at new highs, but cannot be called too bearish until/unless 499.50 is broken, which would undercut the rising uptrend line. The additional area of importance lies at 494.49, or near 11/15 lows, which has more structural importance

NVDA-2.49%  pulled back yesterday under 137 and is having a dampening effect on QQQ-1.58%  which has diverged a bit from all-time highs. Yesterday's break likely does lead NVDA down to 132 or even a bit lower to 128 before this stabilizes. NVDA is the largest stock within SPX by market cap and while Technology has rebounded this past week, Equal-weighted Tech has done far better than Large-cap Tech and "Magnificent 7" by nearly 300 bps this past week in performance. The key takeaway here is that Cyclicals are outperforming while big-Cap Tech has lagged lately

In our view, Thanksgiving rally Intact

• NVDA-2.49%  earnings reported
• Whether market happy or sad
• It’s behind us
• Meaning it’s a "clearing event"

Please BUY THE DIP (if there is one) IWM-2.41%  QQQ-1.58%  SMLR1.24%  MSTR0.65%  KRE-3.63%

Markets are selling off on ‘WWIII’ worries as Putin discusses authorization of nuclear weapons

• VIX is up to 16
• But as shown below, below 23 seen weeks ago

Tells me stocks over-reacting to headlines since VIX-15.39%  low. Meaning, investors likely buy this dip. IWM-2.41%  QQQ-1.58%  SPY-1.35%  BTC

Stock indices remain fractionally positive when eyeing both ^SPX-1.35%  and QQQ-1.58% , while RSP-1.36% , the Equal-weighted ^SPX-1.35%  is negative today, with eight sectors lower out of 11. Technology's gains have disguised some of the weakness in the broader market, but market breadth measures remain about 3/2 negative today. The initial area of importance into tomorrow will be the swing low near 5804 for SPX, and under invites a challenge of 5765. Transports and Small caps have both underperformed today after yesterday's strength and US Dollar and yields are both higher after today's 25 bp cut by ECB.

Many investors fretting about sideways markets of late might take comfort in seeing AAPL-2.88%  break out which is the number 1 component in S&P and QQQ-1.58% . Very constructive move and i expect a coming challenge and break out above prior all-time highs from July near $237.

QQQ-1.58%  has also made progress today, surpassing downtrend from last Thursday 8/22 which should drive this back to marginal highs.. NVDA slowly but surely "paying attention" but we'll need to see HOURLY close back above 124.43 at this point to drive this back to 131. Not sure yet if QQQ can move back to new all-time highs, but i do suspect it pushes up above August highs and might hit 493. Very strong resistance at 503 in my view, technically.

8 Straight days of gains and SPX is now within 1% of new all-time highs. Last week's relative strength in Technology, Discretionary, Financials proved to be strong outperformers. I am expecting a continued rally into Friday's Jackson hole FOMC meeting, and i DO expect both SPY and QQQ-1.58%  to reach all-time highs. At that point, i'll address my thoughts on Sept-Nov and what kind of pullback can happen. For now, trends and momentum remain strong near-term and it's been a very constructive bounce back for Equities along with Treasuries and Gold- 240 min Chart of SPY below. Further gains to SPY-1.35%  565-8 look likely, then a stalling out.

At 2pm ET the FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and at 2:30p ET today, the press conference starts.

• the key is the Fed decision itself is clarity (no surprises expected, no cut today)
• equity markets have stalled waiting for "clarity"
• thus, we expect a substantial rally to start post-FOMC and last a week or two
• Mark Newton, Head of Technical Strategy, also sees high probability of this

Bottom line: Buy IWM-2.41%  SPY-1.35%  QQQ-1.58%  or any combo. But we expect this to be led by small-caps. Hence, "summer of small caps" intact