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Bitcoin BTC is rising today and back to $93k.

• fell from $99k to $91k
• found support near 20 day moving avg $90k

Polymarket betting markets see 74% odds of $100k in 2024. We believe odds are higher MSTR0.45%  SMLR1.62%  MARA-2.21%

With falling rates and the potential for the NVDA-3.09%  rally to extend into next week’s earnings, our AI/HPC miner equities basket presents an attractive risk/reward in the near-term. Below, we highlight the performance of CORZ0.43%  (a leader in HPC compute among Bitcoin miners) versus MARA-2.21%  (which lacks HPC services). This ratio has roughly tracked NVDA's price since early Q2. While rates and BTC3.30%  will continue to impact all miner stocks, HPC miners can benefit from any surges in the AI narrative in traditional markets as well.

The market is currently fixated on the ongoing GameStop (GME-2.15% ) short-squeeze. If this serves as a precursor to broader short-covering across the market, crypto-related equities stand to benefit, as they happen to be a heavily shorted area. Our crypto equities basket is filled with names that have short interest levels near or exceeding 20% of their respective floats: MSTR0.45%  (21%), MARA-2.21%  (23%), RIOT0.25%  (20%), CLSK0.74%  (18%).

As envisioned, rates rolling over has injected some life into bitcoin miners. MARA-2.21%  is up 21% vs BTC3.30%  since the QRA / FOMC meeting on 5/1. WGMI0.17% , a mining ETF, has gained 5% vs BTC3.30%  over the same time frame.

For those looking for related upside to Bitcoin BTC, the crypto miners are highly correlated: MARA-2.21%  RIOT0.25%  IREN5.38%  Even COIN-0.86%  See regression-based price levels as Bitcoin price changes

The choppy equity performance of first two weeks Jan tells us we are in a “difficult” period and probably like this most of first half

• but as we noted in our latest note and video
• we see new highs in Jan because this is what happens when we get within 1% of all time highs
• but new highs doesn’t mean “easy sailing”

So be wary. For the full year, our top ideas:

• small capsIWM-2.11%
• financialsXLF-2.52% KRE-3.03%
• industrialsXLI-1.27%
• technologyXLK-2.26% QQQ-1.55% HACK-0.87% PANW0.20%
• even miners/bitcoinBITB0.94% MARA-2.21% RIOT0.25%

Regarding bitcoin miners, most produce bitcoin at$6000 This is why the price is leveraged to price of bitcoin MARA-2.21% RIOT0.25% IREN5.38% HUT-0.62% WGMI0.17%

If one wants a leveraged exposure to bitcoinBTC, the miners are. Below regression stock price to bitcoin price:

• Price Now -> Price If BTC$100k
  • MARA $26 -> $377
  • RIOT $16 -> $463
  • HUT $16 -> $206
  • COIN $151 -> $2,832

From the above:

• Exchanges: COIN-0.86%
• Miners: MARA-2.21%  RIOT0.25%  HUT-0.62%

These are historical correlations. But you see the implied upside is large.$100k bitcoin is basically a double but miners could rise more

For those following the potential spot ETF approval ofBTC #bitcoin, the clues are becoming louder and tangible

• see tweet from chief counsel of Grayscale
• “Forms”?

The crypto miners are highly leveraged to the spot price of Bitcoin

• RIOT0.25% MARA-2.21% HUT-0.62%  evenCOIN-0.86%
• See potential upside for each stock ifBTC reaches$100,000

https://x.com/craigsalm/status/1742903003399463313?s=46&t=ox_Iko2UDeJ6GX8T2qbNkw

Terawulf (WULF-2.27% ), a smaller Bitcoin miner, released their November production report, noting that they achieved a 3% production growth from October, largely due to transaction fees. They are one of several miners to have acknowledged the inscriptions-driven windfall in a company press release. We believe that equity markets will begin to reassess and reprice miners higher once this dynamic is recognized by traditional equity analysts.MARA-2.21% RIOT0.25% WGMI0.17%